Recent model consensus from agencies like INMET and global ensembles points to a warm, dry air mass sustaining elevated temperatures through August 31 in São Paulo, with ensemble highs clustered near 31–34 °C amid low precipitation odds. This setup explains the market’s elevated implied probability near 30–33 °C while still assigning substantial weight (34 %) to 29 °C or below, reflecting uncertainty over the precise arrival of a cooler, moister front expected early the following week. Key variables include steering flow strength, boundary-layer mixing under northwest winds, and urban heat-island amplification; historical August maxima average only 23–25 °C, underscoring the anomaly. Traders will monitor the next 00Z–12Z runs and official 31 August bulletins for shifts in the thermal ridge or convective initiation that could cap or extend the warmth.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Sao Paulo am 31. August?
Höchste Temperatur in Sao Paulo am 31. August?
30°C 16%
31°C 15%
32°C 14%
33°C 14%
NEU
NEU
31. Aug. 2026
29°C oder darunter
9%
30°C
16%
31°C
15%
32°C
14%
33°C
14%
34°C
8%
35°C
5%
36°C
3%
37°C
5%
38°C
<1%
39°C oder höher
<1%
30°C 16%
31°C 15%
32°C 14%
33°C 14%
NEU
NEU
31. Aug. 2026
29°C oder darunter
$267 Vol.
9%
30°C
$100 Vol.
16%
31°C
$69 Vol.
15%
32°C
$42 Vol.
14%
33°C
$0 Vol.
14%
34°C
$31 Vol.
8%
35°C
$0 Vol.
5%
36°C
$7 Vol.
3%
37°C
$10 Vol.
5%
38°C
$10 Vol.
<1%
39°C oder höher
$10 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from agencies like INMET and global ensembles points to a warm, dry air mass sustaining elevated temperatures through August 31 in São Paulo, with ensemble highs clustered near 31–34 °C amid low precipitation odds. This setup explains the market’s elevated implied probability near 30–33 °C while still assigning substantial weight (34 %) to 29 °C or below, reflecting uncertainty over the precise arrival of a cooler, moister front expected early the following week. Key variables include steering flow strength, boundary-layer mixing under northwest winds, and urban heat-island amplification; historical August maxima average only 23–25 °C, underscoring the anomaly. Traders will monitor the next 00Z–12Z runs and official 31 August bulletins for shifts in the thermal ridge or convective initiation that could cap or extend the warmth.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 29, 2026, 8:55 AM ET
Volumen
$546Enddatum
31. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 29, 2026, 8:55 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from agencies like INMET and global ensembles points to a warm, dry air mass sustaining elevated temperatures through August 31 in São Paulo, with ensemble highs clustered near 31–34 °C amid low precipitation odds. This setup explains the market’s elevated implied probability near 30–33 °C while still assigning substantial weight (34 %) to 29 °C or below, reflecting uncertainty over the precise arrival of a cooler, moister front expected early the following week. Key variables include steering flow strength, boundary-layer mixing under northwest winds, and urban heat-island amplification; historical August maxima average only 23–25 °C, underscoring the anomaly. Traders will monitor the next 00Z–12Z runs and official 31 August bulletins for shifts in the thermal ridge or convective initiation that could cap or extend the warmth.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$546Enddatum
31. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 29, 2026, 8:55 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from agencies like INMET and global ensembles points to a warm, dry air mass sustaining elevated temperatures through August 31 in São Paulo, with ensemble highs clustered near 31–34 °C amid low precipitation odds. This setup explains the market’s elevated implied probability near 30–33 °C while still assigning substantial weight (34 %) to 29 °C or below, reflecting uncertainty over the precise arrival of a cooler, moister front expected early the following week. Key variables include steering flow strength, boundary-layer mixing under northwest winds, and urban heat-island amplification; historical August maxima average only 23–25 °C, underscoring the anomaly. Traders will monitor the next 00Z–12Z runs and official 31 August bulletins for shifts in the thermal ridge or convective initiation that could cap or extend the warmth.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen