Persistent southwest monsoon activity and widespread thunderstorms are keeping Manila's overnight temperatures elevated, with official forecasts from PAGASA-aligned models projecting a September 4 minimum near 25–26°C amid high humidity, cloud cover, and steady 8–10 m/s winds that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. This setup supports the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 24–29°C outcomes while explaining why extremes below 22°C or above 30°C remain possible only under rapid model shifts in steering flow or unexpected clear-sky breaks. Historical September lows average 24–25°C, but active convection this week has narrowed the diurnal range, leaving traders focused on the next 24–48 hours of updated guidance for resolution thresholds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNiedrigste Temperatur in Manila am 4. September?
Niedrigste Temperatur in Manila am 4. September?
21°C oder darunter 87%
31°C oder höher 84%
23°C 49%
24°C 49%
NEU
NEU
4. Sep. 2026
21°C oder darunter
87%
22°C
13%
23°C
49%
24°C
49%
25°C
49%
26°C
31%
27°C
29%
28°C
49%
29°C
49%
30°C
2%
31°C oder höher
84%
21°C oder darunter 87%
31°C oder höher 84%
23°C 49%
24°C 49%
NEU
NEU
4. Sep. 2026
21°C oder darunter
$0 Vol.
87%
22°C
$0 Vol.
13%
23°C
$0 Vol.
49%
24°C
$0 Vol.
49%
25°C
$0 Vol.
49%
26°C
$0 Vol.
31%
27°C
$0 Vol.
29%
28°C
$0 Vol.
49%
29°C
$0 Vol.
49%
30°C
$0 Vol.
2%
31°C oder höher
$0 Vol.
84%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon activity and widespread thunderstorms are keeping Manila's overnight temperatures elevated, with official forecasts from PAGASA-aligned models projecting a September 4 minimum near 25–26°C amid high humidity, cloud cover, and steady 8–10 m/s winds that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. This setup supports the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 24–29°C outcomes while explaining why extremes below 22°C or above 30°C remain possible only under rapid model shifts in steering flow or unexpected clear-sky breaks. Historical September lows average 24–25°C, but active convection this week has narrowed the diurnal range, leaving traders focused on the next 24–48 hours of updated guidance for resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 2, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volumen
$0Enddatum
4. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 2, 2026, 12:31 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon activity and widespread thunderstorms are keeping Manila's overnight temperatures elevated, with official forecasts from PAGASA-aligned models projecting a September 4 minimum near 25–26°C amid high humidity, cloud cover, and steady 8–10 m/s winds that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. This setup supports the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 24–29°C outcomes while explaining why extremes below 22°C or above 30°C remain possible only under rapid model shifts in steering flow or unexpected clear-sky breaks. Historical September lows average 24–25°C, but active convection this week has narrowed the diurnal range, leaving traders focused on the next 24–48 hours of updated guidance for resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$0Enddatum
4. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 2, 2026, 12:31 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Persistent southwest monsoon activity and widespread thunderstorms are keeping Manila's overnight temperatures elevated, with official forecasts from PAGASA-aligned models projecting a September 4 minimum near 25–26°C amid high humidity, cloud cover, and steady 8–10 m/s winds that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. This setup supports the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 24–29°C outcomes while explaining why extremes below 22°C or above 30°C remain possible only under rapid model shifts in steering flow or unexpected clear-sky breaks. Historical September lows average 24–25°C, but active convection this week has narrowed the diurnal range, leaving traders focused on the next 24–48 hours of updated guidance for resolution thresholds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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