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icon for ¿Una rebaja de la deuda de la UE antes de 2027?

¿Una rebaja de la deuda de la UE antes de 2027?

icon for ¿Una rebaja de la deuda de la UE antes de 2027?

¿Una rebaja de la deuda de la UE antes de 2027?

Sí

17% probabilidad
Polymarket
NUEVO

Sí

17% probabilidad
Polymarket
NUEVO
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the European Union's long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent affirmations of the European Union's AAA ratings with stable outlooks by Fitch in early 2026, Moody's in March, and Scope reinforce trader consensus against an imminent downgrade. These reflect sustained backing from highly rated member states, resilient loan portfolio quality averaging BBB, and debt service coverage that remains adequate despite EU debt rising toward €1 trillion by year-end. Broader fiscal pressures, including projected EU debt-to-GDP increases and geopolitical tensions, have prompted a deteriorating global sovereign outlook from Fitch, yet no negative watches or outlook changes target the EU itself. Key near-term catalysts include the next round of agency reviews and any shifts in German or other AAA-rated contributions, which currently anchor market-implied odds at 84% for no downgrade before 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the European Union's long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$1,404
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Jan 7, 2026, 6:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the European Union's long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the European Union's long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent affirmations of the European Union's AAA ratings with stable outlooks by Fitch in early 2026, Moody's in March, and Scope reinforce trader consensus against an imminent downgrade. These reflect sustained backing from highly rated member states, resilient loan portfolio quality averaging BBB, and debt service coverage that remains adequate despite EU debt rising toward €1 trillion by year-end. Broader fiscal pressures, including projected EU debt-to-GDP increases and geopolitical tensions, have prompted a deteriorating global sovereign outlook from Fitch, yet no negative watches or outlook changes target the EU itself. Key near-term catalysts include the next round of agency reviews and any shifts in German or other AAA-rated contributions, which currently anchor market-implied odds at 84% for no downgrade before 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the European Union's long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$1,404
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Jan 7, 2026, 6:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the European Union's long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Una rebaja de la deuda de la UE antes de 2027?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 2 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "¿Degradación de la deuda de la UE antes de 2027?" con 17%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 17¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 17% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"¿Una rebaja de la deuda de la UE antes de 2027?" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Jan 7, 2026. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "¿Una rebaja de la deuda de la UE antes de 2027?", explora los 2 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Una rebaja de la deuda de la UE antes de 2027?" es "¿Degradación de la deuda de la UE antes de 2027?" con 17%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 17% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Una rebaja de la deuda de la UE antes de 2027?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.