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¿Otra rebaja de la deuda de EE. UU. antes de 2027?

Market icon

¿Otra rebaja de la deuda de EE. UU. antes de 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

Sí

26% chance
Polymarket
NEW

Sí

26% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 70.5% implied probability against another US sovereign debt downgrade before 2027, anchored by stable outlooks from major agencies—S&P at AA+ stable, Moody's at Aa1 following its May 2025 action, and Fitch's neutral North American sovereign outlook for 2026—amid resilient economic growth and moderating inflation pressures. Persistent fiscal challenges, including projected debt-to-GDP ratios climbing to 123% by 2027 and general government deficits edging higher, are offset by robust GDP expansion and Treasury market stability, with 10-year yields holding steady around recent levels. Key catalysts include Q1 FY2026 budget data releases, potential debt ceiling negotiations later this year, and Federal Reserve policy updates through mid-2026 that could influence deficit trajectories and rating agency assessments.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 70.5% implied probability against another US sovereign debt downgrade before 2027, anchored by stable outlooks from major agencies—S&P at AA+ stable, Moody's at Aa1 following its May 2025 action, and Fitch's neutral North American sovereign outlook for 2026—amid resilient economic growth and moderating inflation pressures. Persistent fiscal challenges, including projected debt-to-GDP ratios climbing to 123% by 2027 and general government deficits edging higher, are offset by robust GDP expansion and Treasury market stability, with 10-year yields holding steady around recent levels. Key catalysts include Q1 FY2026 budget data releases, potential debt ceiling negotiations later this year, and Federal Reserve policy updates through mid-2026 that could influence deficit trajectories and rating agency assessments.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 70.5% implied probability against another US sovereign debt downgrade before 2027, anchored by stable outlooks from major agencies—S&P at AA+ stable, Moody's at Aa1 following its May 2025 action, and Fitch's neutral North American sovereign outlook for 2026—amid resilient economic growth and moderating inflation pressures. Persistent fiscal challenges, including projected debt-to-GDP ratios climbing to 123% by 2027 and general government deficits edging higher, are offset by robust GDP expansion and Treasury market stability, with 10-year yields holding steady around recent levels. Key catalysts include Q1 FY2026 budget data releases, potential debt ceiling negotiations later this year, and Federal Reserve policy updates through mid-2026 that could influence deficit trajectories and rating agency assessments.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 70.5% implied probability against another US sovereign debt downgrade before 2027, anchored by stable outlooks from major agencies—S&P at AA+ stable, Moody's at Aa1 following its May 2025 action, and Fitch's neutral North American sovereign outlook for 2026—amid resilient economic growth and moderating inflation pressures. Persistent fiscal challenges, including projected debt-to-GDP ratios climbing to 123% by 2027 and general government deficits edging higher, are offset by robust GDP expansion and Treasury market stability, with 10-year yields holding steady around recent levels. Key catalysts include Q1 FY2026 budget data releases, potential debt ceiling negotiations later this year, and Federal Reserve policy updates through mid-2026 that could influence deficit trajectories and rating agency assessments.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Otra rebaja de la deuda de EE. UU. antes de 2027?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 2 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "¿Otra degradación de la deuda de EE. UU. antes de 2027?" con 29%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 29¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 29% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"¿Otra rebaja de la deuda de EE. UU. antes de 2027?" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Nov 5, 2025. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "¿Otra rebaja de la deuda de EE. UU. antes de 2027?", explora los 2 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Otra rebaja de la deuda de EE. UU. antes de 2027?" es "¿Otra degradación de la deuda de EE. UU. antes de 2027?" con 29%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 29% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Otra rebaja de la deuda de EE. UU. antes de 2027?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.