**Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and a divided July FOMC are the main forces shaping trader positioning on the sequence of rate decisions through September 2026.** The central bank held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% at both the June and July meetings, with the July vote splitting 9-3 and three members dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point hike amid June CPI at 3.5% year-over-year and ongoing energy-price pressures linked to Middle East developments. This outcome has left market-implied odds tilted toward “Other” (58%) and “Pause–Pause–Pause” (41%), reflecting expectations of further holds in September while acknowledging the risk of a hike or other path once updated projections are released. The September 15–16 meeting, which includes a fresh dot plot, remains the key near-term catalyst, with incoming July–August CPI prints and labor data likely to determine whether the committee maintains its current restrictive stance or shifts policy.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoOther 58%
Pause–Pause–Pause 41%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.5%
$665,343 Vol.
$665,343 Vol.
16 sep 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
41%
Pause–Pause–Cut
2%
Other
58%
Other 58%
Pause–Pause–Pause 41%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.5%
$665,343 Vol.
$665,343 Vol.
16 sep 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$264,198 Vol.
41%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$58,322 Vol.
2%
Other
$286,946 Vol.
58%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and a divided July FOMC are the main forces shaping trader positioning on the sequence of rate decisions through September 2026.**
The central bank held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% at both the June and July meetings, with the July vote splitting 9-3 and three members dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point hike amid June CPI at 3.5% year-over-year and ongoing energy-price pressures linked to Middle East developments. This outcome has left market-implied odds tilted toward “Other” (58%) and “Pause–Pause–Pause” (41%), reflecting expectations of further holds in September while acknowledging the risk of a hike or other path once updated projections are released.
The September 15–16 meeting, which includes a fresh dot plot, remains the key near-term catalyst, with incoming July–August CPI prints and labor data likely to determine whether the committee maintains its current restrictive stance or shifts policy.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercado abierto: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Volumen
$665,343Fecha de finalización
16 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and a divided July FOMC are the main forces shaping trader positioning on the sequence of rate decisions through September 2026.**
The central bank held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% at both the June and July meetings, with the July vote splitting 9-3 and three members dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point hike amid June CPI at 3.5% year-over-year and ongoing energy-price pressures linked to Middle East developments. This outcome has left market-implied odds tilted toward “Other” (58%) and “Pause–Pause–Pause” (41%), reflecting expectations of further holds in September while acknowledging the risk of a hike or other path once updated projections are released.
The September 15–16 meeting, which includes a fresh dot plot, remains the key near-term catalyst, with incoming July–August CPI prints and labor data likely to determine whether the committee maintains its current restrictive stance or shifts policy.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volumen
$665,343Fecha de finalización
16 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and a divided July FOMC are the main forces shaping trader positioning on the sequence of rate decisions through September 2026.** The central bank held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% at both the June and July meetings, with the July vote splitting 9-3 and three members dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point hike amid June CPI at 3.5% year-over-year and ongoing energy-price pressures linked to Middle East developments. This outcome has left market-implied odds tilted toward “Other” (58%) and “Pause–Pause–Pause” (41%), reflecting expectations of further holds in September while acknowledging the risk of a hike or other path once updated projections are released. The September 15–16 meeting, which includes a fresh dot plot, remains the key near-term catalyst, with incoming July–August CPI prints and labor data likely to determine whether the committee maintains its current restrictive stance or shifts policy.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes