Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, reinforced by energy-related supply shocks, combined with resilient economic growth and stable labor market conditions, has anchored trader sentiment toward consecutive holds, supporting the 72.5% implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the June, July, and September 2026 FOMC meetings. The July decision maintained the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75% by a 9-3 vote, with three members dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point hike, signaling internal divisions but preserving the majority path for policy restraint. Market-implied odds reflect skin-in-the-game consensus on limited near-term easing, with the September 15-16 meeting serving as the next key catalyst amid ongoing inflation vigilance.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoPause–Pause–Pause 73%
Other 28%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$747,444 Vol.
$747,444 Vol.
16 sep 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
73%
Pause–Pause–Cut
<1%
Other
28%
Pause–Pause–Pause 73%
Other 28%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$747,444 Vol.
$747,444 Vol.
16 sep 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$291,509 Vol.
73%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$77,452 Vol.
<1%
Other
$322,607 Vol.
28%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, reinforced by energy-related supply shocks, combined with resilient economic growth and stable labor market conditions, has anchored trader sentiment toward consecutive holds, supporting the 72.5% implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the June, July, and September 2026 FOMC meetings. The July decision maintained the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75% by a 9-3 vote, with three members dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point hike, signaling internal divisions but preserving the majority path for policy restraint. Market-implied odds reflect skin-in-the-game consensus on limited near-term easing, with the September 15-16 meeting serving as the next key catalyst amid ongoing inflation vigilance.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercado abierto: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Volumen
$747,444Fecha de finalización
16 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, reinforced by energy-related supply shocks, combined with resilient economic growth and stable labor market conditions, has anchored trader sentiment toward consecutive holds, supporting the 72.5% implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the June, July, and September 2026 FOMC meetings. The July decision maintained the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75% by a 9-3 vote, with three members dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point hike, signaling internal divisions but preserving the majority path for policy restraint. Market-implied odds reflect skin-in-the-game consensus on limited near-term easing, with the September 15-16 meeting serving as the next key catalyst amid ongoing inflation vigilance.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volumen
$747,444Fecha de finalización
16 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, reinforced by energy-related supply shocks, combined with resilient economic growth and stable labor market conditions, has anchored trader sentiment toward consecutive holds, supporting the 72.5% implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the June, July, and September 2026 FOMC meetings. The July decision maintained the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75% by a 9-3 vote, with three members dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point hike, signaling internal divisions but preserving the majority path for policy restraint. Market-implied odds reflect skin-in-the-game consensus on limited near-term easing, with the September 15-16 meeting serving as the next key catalyst amid ongoing inflation vigilance.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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