Recent strong August jobs data, with nonfarm payrolls surging 162,000 versus expectations of 56,000 and unemployment dipping to 4.1%, has elevated market-implied odds of at least one 25-basis-point hike by year-end, pushing short-term futures pricing toward a 62% chance for September action. Persistent inflation, with July PCE at 3.7% and three-month core readings near 3.05%, continues to anchor trader focus amid the Fed’s revised dot plot showing nine participants favoring higher rates by December. Under Chair Warsh, the shift away from forward guidance toward data dependence amplifies sensitivity to upcoming CPI, PPI, and labor releases, creating a wide distribution across pause-hike sequences as participants weigh whether cooling price pressures will outweigh resilient employment.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoPausa–pausa–pausa 28%
Subida–Pausa–Pausa 16%
Pausar–Pausar–Subir 11%
Subir–Pausar–Subir 10%
$10,897 Vol.
$10,897 Vol.
9 dic 2026
Subir–Pausar–Subir
10%
Subida–Pausa–Pausa
16%
Subida–Subida–Subida
5%
Subida–subida–pausa
6%
Pausar–Pausar–Subir
11%
Pausa–pausa–pausa
28%
Pausa–Subida–Subida
7%
Pausa–Subida–Pausa
3%
Otro
5%
Pausa–pausa–pausa 28%
Subida–Pausa–Pausa 16%
Pausar–Pausar–Subir 11%
Subir–Pausar–Subir 10%
$10,897 Vol.
$10,897 Vol.
9 dic 2026
Subir–Pausar–Subir
$314 Vol.
10%
Subida–Pausa–Pausa
$296 Vol.
16%
Subida–Subida–Subida
$216 Vol.
5%
Subida–subida–pausa
$237 Vol.
6%
Pausar–Pausar–Subir
$253 Vol.
11%
Pausa–pausa–pausa
$8,928 Vol.
28%
Pausa–Subida–Subida
$237 Vol.
7%
Pausa–Subida–Pausa
$214 Vol.
3%
Otro
$203 Vol.
5%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent strong August jobs data, with nonfarm payrolls surging 162,000 versus expectations of 56,000 and unemployment dipping to 4.1%, has elevated market-implied odds of at least one 25-basis-point hike by year-end, pushing short-term futures pricing toward a 62% chance for September action. Persistent inflation, with July PCE at 3.7% and three-month core readings near 3.05%, continues to anchor trader focus amid the Fed’s revised dot plot showing nine participants favoring higher rates by December. Under Chair Warsh, the shift away from forward guidance toward data dependence amplifies sensitivity to upcoming CPI, PPI, and labor releases, creating a wide distribution across pause-hike sequences as participants weigh whether cooling price pressures will outweigh resilient employment.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercado abierto: Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
Volumen
$10,897Fecha de finalización
9 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent strong August jobs data, with nonfarm payrolls surging 162,000 versus expectations of 56,000 and unemployment dipping to 4.1%, has elevated market-implied odds of at least one 25-basis-point hike by year-end, pushing short-term futures pricing toward a 62% chance for September action. Persistent inflation, with July PCE at 3.7% and three-month core readings near 3.05%, continues to anchor trader focus amid the Fed’s revised dot plot showing nine participants favoring higher rates by December. Under Chair Warsh, the shift away from forward guidance toward data dependence amplifies sensitivity to upcoming CPI, PPI, and labor releases, creating a wide distribution across pause-hike sequences as participants weigh whether cooling price pressures will outweigh resilient employment.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volumen
$10,897Fecha de finalización
9 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent strong August jobs data, with nonfarm payrolls surging 162,000 versus expectations of 56,000 and unemployment dipping to 4.1%, has elevated market-implied odds of at least one 25-basis-point hike by year-end, pushing short-term futures pricing toward a 62% chance for September action. Persistent inflation, with July PCE at 3.7% and three-month core readings near 3.05%, continues to anchor trader focus amid the Fed’s revised dot plot showing nine participants favoring higher rates by December. Under Chair Warsh, the shift away from forward guidance toward data dependence amplifies sensitivity to upcoming CPI, PPI, and labor releases, creating a wide distribution across pause-hike sequences as participants weigh whether cooling price pressures will outweigh resilient employment.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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