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¿La temperatura más alta en Nueva York el 31 de marzo?

Market icon

¿La temperatura más alta en Nueva York el 31 de marzo?

Mar 27

Mar 28

Mar 29

Mar 31

Mar 27

Mar 28

Mar 29

Mar 31

72-73°F 31%

74°F o más 28%

70-71°F 12.3%

68-69°F 10.0%

Polymarket
NEW

72-73°F 31%

74°F o más 28%

70-71°F 12.3%

68-69°F 10.0%

Polymarket
NEW

55°F o menos

$767 Vol.

1%

56-57°F

$1,458 Vol.

3%

58-59°F

$638 Vol.

3%

60-61°F

$542 Vol.

2%

62-63°F

$273 Vol.

8%

64-65°F

$212 Vol.

6%

66-67°F

$202 Vol.

6%

68-69°F

$553 Vol.

10%

70-71°F

$1,068 Vol.

21%

72-73°F

$1,774 Vol.

31%

74°F o más

$2,028 Vol.

42%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a roughly 70% chance of NYC's March 31 high temperature reaching 72°F or above, driven by the latest National Weather Service forecasts and model ensembles from GFS and ECMWF showing a persistent high-pressure ridge ushering warm southerly flow into the Northeast. Current outlooks pinpoint peak highs around 72-75°F during afternoon hours, well above the late-March climatological average of 52°F, fueled by above-normal upper-air temperatures and minimal cloud cover. Yesterday's 12Z model runs reinforced this warming signal with little divergence, though inherent forecast uncertainty remains as new observations from Central Park could prompt adjustments. Watch for this afternoon's updated guidance ahead of the event.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$9,514
Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026
Mercado abierto
Mar 27, 2026, 6:01 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a roughly 70% chance of NYC's March 31 high temperature reaching 72°F or above, driven by the latest National Weather Service forecasts and model ensembles from GFS and ECMWF showing a persistent high-pressure ridge ushering warm southerly flow into the Northeast. Current outlooks pinpoint peak highs around 72-75°F during afternoon hours, well above the late-March climatological average of 52°F, fueled by above-normal upper-air temperatures and minimal cloud cover. Yesterday's 12Z model runs reinforced this warming signal with little divergence, though inherent forecast uncertainty remains as new observations from Central Park could prompt adjustments. Watch for this afternoon's updated guidance ahead of the event.

Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a roughly 70% chance of NYC's March 31 high temperature reaching 72°F or above, driven by the latest National Weather Service forecasts and model ensembles from GFS and ECMWF showing a persistent high-pressure ridge ushering warm southerly flow into the Northeast. Current outlooks pinpoint peak highs around 72-75°F during afternoon hours, well above the late-March climatological average of 52°F, fueled by above-normal upper-air temperatures and minimal cloud cover. Yesterday's 12Z model runs reinforced this warming signal with little divergence, though inherent forecast uncertainty remains as new observations from Central Park could prompt adjustments. Watch for this afternoon's updated guidance ahead of the event.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿La temperatura más alta en Nueva York el 31 de marzo?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 11 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "74°F o más" con 42%, seguido de "72-73°F" con 31%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 42¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 42% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"¿La temperatura más alta en Nueva York el 31 de marzo?" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Mar 27, 2026. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "¿La temperatura más alta en Nueva York el 31 de marzo?", explora los 11 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿La temperatura más alta en Nueva York el 31 de marzo?" es "74°F o más" con 42%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 42% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "72-73°F" con 31%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿La temperatura más alta en Nueva York el 31 de marzo?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.