Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts pinpoint Madrid's March 27 high at around 19°C under persistent high-pressure ridging from the Azores, fueling the 33% market-implied odds for that outcome and keeping 18°C (26%) and 20°C (20%) tightly clustered. AEMET's official outlook aligns closely at 18-20°C, tempered by potential afternoon cloudiness from a weak Atlantic disturbance, which models diverge on by 1-2°C due to varying boundary layer mixing and soil moisture residuals from recent rains. Historical late-March data shows Madrid averages 17.5°C but with a 2°C standard deviation from solar insolation variability, explaining traders' caution on extremes beyond 21°C (15% combined) amid low wind shear.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Madrid on March 27?
Highest temperature in Madrid on March 27?
19°C 34%
18°C 25%
20°C 17%
21°C 15%
12°C or below
2%
13°C
1%
14°C
2%
15°C
6%
16°C
4%
17°C
7%
18°C
25%
19°C
34%
20°C
17%
21°C
15%
22°C or higher
6%
19°C 34%
18°C 25%
20°C 17%
21°C 15%
12°C or below
2%
13°C
1%
14°C
2%
15°C
6%
16°C
4%
17°C
7%
18°C
25%
19°C
34%
20°C
17%
21°C
15%
22°C or higher
6%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 23, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts pinpoint Madrid's March 27 high at around 19°C under persistent high-pressure ridging from the Azores, fueling the 33% market-implied odds for that outcome and keeping 18°C (26%) and 20°C (20%) tightly clustered. AEMET's official outlook aligns closely at 18-20°C, tempered by potential afternoon cloudiness from a weak Atlantic disturbance, which models diverge on by 1-2°C due to varying boundary layer mixing and soil moisture residuals from recent rains. Historical late-March data shows Madrid averages 17.5°C but with a 2°C standard deviation from solar insolation variability, explaining traders' caution on extremes beyond 21°C (15% combined) amid low wind shear.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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