Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in Beijing's forecast high for March 29, with models like ECMWF and GFS ensembles clustering probabilities around 20–24°C and 22°C leading at 25%. Recent China Meteorological Administration updates show a mild air mass dominating northern China after a passing cold front, supporting highs near 22°C amid light southerly winds and partial cloud cover, though variability in boundary layer mixing could push outcomes toward 23–24°C or cooler 20–21°C. Historical March averages hover at 13–15°C, but urban heat island effects and early spring warming trends have elevated recent baselines; watch for tomorrow's 00Z model runs, which often refine 5–7 day temperature outlooks amid typical spring volatility.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Beijing on March 29?
Highest temperature in Beijing on March 29?
22°C 25%
23°C 21%
24°C 21%
21°C 18%
15°C or below
2%
16°C
2%
17°C
4%
18°C
7%
19°C
8%
20°C
11%
21°C
18%
22°C
25%
23°C
21%
24°C
21%
25°C or higher
9%
22°C 25%
23°C 21%
24°C 21%
21°C 18%
15°C or below
2%
16°C
2%
17°C
4%
18°C
7%
19°C
8%
20°C
11%
21°C
18%
22°C
25%
23°C
21%
24°C
21%
25°C or higher
9%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 25, 2026, 6:19 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in Beijing's forecast high for March 29, with models like ECMWF and GFS ensembles clustering probabilities around 20–24°C and 22°C leading at 25%. Recent China Meteorological Administration updates show a mild air mass dominating northern China after a passing cold front, supporting highs near 22°C amid light southerly winds and partial cloud cover, though variability in boundary layer mixing could push outcomes toward 23–24°C or cooler 20–21°C. Historical March averages hover at 13–15°C, but urban heat island effects and early spring warming trends have elevated recent baselines; watch for tomorrow's 00Z model runs, which often refine 5–7 day temperature outlooks amid typical spring volatility.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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