Latest ensemble forecasts from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models project New York City's high temperature on March 26 reaching 65-70°F, fueling the 79.5% market-implied probability for 66°F or higher as traders anticipate above-normal warmth from a persistent upper-level ridge and southerly flow advecting mild Atlantic air. This aligns with recent 00Z model runs showing minimal spread, with 500mb heights 60-80 decameters above average, reducing odds for cooler outcomes like 64-65°F at 11.5%. Historical March baselines around 52°F underscore the anomaly, while dry conditions limit cloud cover impacts; upcoming 12Z updates could refine these odds if boundary layer mixing strengthens.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in NYC on March 26?
Highest temperature in NYC on March 26?
66°F or higher 80%
64-65°F 12%
62-63°F 3.4%
60-61°F 1.4%
$32,542 Vol.
$32,542 Vol.
47°F or below
<1%
48-49°F
<1%
50-51°F
<1%
52-53°F
1%
54-55°F
<1%
56-57°F
1%
58-59°F
1%
60-61°F
1%
62-63°F
3%
64-65°F
12%
66°F or higher
80%
66°F or higher 80%
64-65°F 12%
62-63°F 3.4%
60-61°F 1.4%
$32,542 Vol.
$32,542 Vol.
47°F or below
<1%
48-49°F
<1%
50-51°F
<1%
52-53°F
1%
54-55°F
<1%
56-57°F
1%
58-59°F
1%
60-61°F
1%
62-63°F
3%
64-65°F
12%
66°F or higher
80%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 22, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models project New York City's high temperature on March 26 reaching 65-70°F, fueling the 79.5% market-implied probability for 66°F or higher as traders anticipate above-normal warmth from a persistent upper-level ridge and southerly flow advecting mild Atlantic air. This aligns with recent 00Z model runs showing minimal spread, with 500mb heights 60-80 decameters above average, reducing odds for cooler outcomes like 64-65°F at 11.5%. Historical March baselines around 52°F underscore the anomaly, while dry conditions limit cloud cover impacts; upcoming 12Z updates could refine these odds if boundary layer mixing strengthens.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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