Trader consensus favors a 24°C high in Chengdu on March 26 at 33% implied probability, edging out 23°C (29.5%) and 22°C (20.5%), driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converging on a 23-25°C diurnal maximum amid mild southerly winds and low cloud cover. Historical March averages hover around 18-20°C, but recent model runs indicate above-normal warmth from persistent high-pressure ridging, differentiating the leaders from cooler outcomes tied to potential afternoon haze or weak frontal passages. Key uncertainty stems from urban heat island amplification and exact solar insolation timing, with CMA updates expected to refine odds before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Chengdu on March 26?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on March 26?
24°C 32%
23°C 29%
22°C 21%
21°C 9%
17°C or below
1%
18°C
1%
19°C
2%
20°C
2%
21°C
9%
22°C
21%
23°C
29%
24°C
32%
25°C
6%
26°C
3%
27°C or higher
1%
24°C 32%
23°C 29%
22°C 21%
21°C 9%
17°C or below
1%
18°C
1%
19°C
2%
20°C
2%
21°C
9%
22°C
21%
23°C
29%
24°C
32%
25°C
6%
26°C
3%
27°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 22, 2026, 6:12 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors a 24°C high in Chengdu on March 26 at 33% implied probability, edging out 23°C (29.5%) and 22°C (20.5%), driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converging on a 23-25°C diurnal maximum amid mild southerly winds and low cloud cover. Historical March averages hover around 18-20°C, but recent model runs indicate above-normal warmth from persistent high-pressure ridging, differentiating the leaders from cooler outcomes tied to potential afternoon haze or weak frontal passages. Key uncertainty stems from urban heat island amplification and exact solar insolation timing, with CMA updates expected to refine odds before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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