Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Austin's March 29 high temperature, with models clustering around 82-87°F amid a building high-pressure ridge over Texas. The National Weather Service's latest guidance points to a high near 84°F under sunny skies and light southerly winds, but ensemble runs from GFS and ECMWF show slight divergence: cooler solutions factor in potential morning clouds and residual Gulf moisture, while warmer outliers anticipate stronger subsidence and clearer skies boosting peaks to 88°F+. Historical March norms average 75-80°F, but this week's warm spell—driven by zonal jet stream flow—has elevated expectations. New hourly updates from NOAA expected by evening could sharpen resolution odds before the daily maximum observation at Austin-Bergstrom Airport.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Austin on March 29?
Highest temperature in Austin on March 29?
84-85°F 22%
86-87°F 22%
82-83°F 20%
80-81°F 19%
73°F or below
3%
74-75°F
7%
76-77°F
10%
78-79°F
14%
80-81°F
19%
82-83°F
20%
84-85°F
22%
86-87°F
22%
88-89°F
11%
90-91°F
9%
92°F or higher
8%
84-85°F 22%
86-87°F 22%
82-83°F 20%
80-81°F 19%
73°F or below
3%
74-75°F
7%
76-77°F
10%
78-79°F
14%
80-81°F
19%
82-83°F
20%
84-85°F
22%
86-87°F
22%
88-89°F
11%
90-91°F
9%
92°F or higher
8%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 25, 2026, 6:19 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Austin's March 29 high temperature, with models clustering around 82-87°F amid a building high-pressure ridge over Texas. The National Weather Service's latest guidance points to a high near 84°F under sunny skies and light southerly winds, but ensemble runs from GFS and ECMWF show slight divergence: cooler solutions factor in potential morning clouds and residual Gulf moisture, while warmer outliers anticipate stronger subsidence and clearer skies boosting peaks to 88°F+. Historical March norms average 75-80°F, but this week's warm spell—driven by zonal jet stream flow—has elevated expectations. New hourly updates from NOAA expected by evening could sharpen resolution odds before the daily maximum observation at Austin-Bergstrom Airport.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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