Trader consensus on Polymarket centers on a March 29 high temperature in Miami of 78-79°F (34% implied probability), narrowly ahead of 76-77°F (28%), reflecting inherent uncertainty in short-range weather models amid variable sea breeze influences and light southerly winds. The National Weather Service's latest forecast guidance shows ensemble spreads of 2-3°F, with the GFS model favoring slight warming under building upper-ridge influence while the ECMWF leans cooler due to lingering effects from a weak frontal passage earlier this week that suppressed highs into the low 70s. Historical late-March averages hover near 80°F, but current neutral ENSO conditions and urban heat island moderation add nuance; watch the NWS 12z update for refined peak-hour projections at MIA observation site.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Miami on March 29?
Highest temperature in Miami on March 29?
78-79°F 35%
76-77°F 26%
80-81°F 14%
82-83°F 13%
71°F or below
5%
72-73°F
10%
74-75°F
12%
76-77°F
26%
78-79°F
35%
80-81°F
14%
82-83°F
13%
84-85°F
7%
86-87°F
7%
88-89°F
5%
90°F or higher
2%
78-79°F 35%
76-77°F 26%
80-81°F 14%
82-83°F 13%
71°F or below
5%
72-73°F
10%
74-75°F
12%
76-77°F
26%
78-79°F
35%
80-81°F
14%
82-83°F
13%
84-85°F
7%
86-87°F
7%
88-89°F
5%
90°F or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 25, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket centers on a March 29 high temperature in Miami of 78-79°F (34% implied probability), narrowly ahead of 76-77°F (28%), reflecting inherent uncertainty in short-range weather models amid variable sea breeze influences and light southerly winds. The National Weather Service's latest forecast guidance shows ensemble spreads of 2-3°F, with the GFS model favoring slight warming under building upper-ridge influence while the ECMWF leans cooler due to lingering effects from a weak frontal passage earlier this week that suppressed highs into the low 70s. Historical late-March averages hover near 80°F, but current neutral ENSO conditions and urban heat island moderation add nuance; watch the NWS 12z update for refined peak-hour projections at MIA observation site.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes