Trader sentiment on Miami's highest temperature March 26 heavily favors 82-83°F at 35.5% implied probability, edging out 80-81°F at 29%, reflecting tight model consensus from NOAA's National Weather Service forecast high of 82°F under a building subtropical ridge. Persistent high pressure over Florida suppresses thunderstorms while allowing sea-breeze moderation, capping peaks amid dewpoints near 70°F that temper heat index. Ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF show a 2-3°F spread, with slight warm anomalies from above-average Atlantic sea surface temperatures boosting 84-85°F odds to 16.5%; cooler outliers below 80°F hinge on unexpected frontal intrusions, rare this late March per climatology averaging 81°F highs.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Miami el 26 de marzo?
¿La temperatura más alta en Miami el 26 de marzo?
82-83°F 35%
80-81°F 30%
84-85°F 17%
78-79°F 10%
$16,000 Vol.
$16,000 Vol.
71°F o menos
<1%
72-73°F
1%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
3%
78-79°F
10%
80-81°F
30%
82-83°F
35%
84-85°F
17%
86-87°F
3%
88-89°F
1%
90°F o más
1%
82-83°F 35%
80-81°F 30%
84-85°F 17%
78-79°F 10%
$16,000 Vol.
$16,000 Vol.
71°F o menos
<1%
72-73°F
1%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
3%
78-79°F
10%
80-81°F
30%
82-83°F
35%
84-85°F
17%
86-87°F
3%
88-89°F
1%
90°F o más
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 22, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on Miami's highest temperature March 26 heavily favors 82-83°F at 35.5% implied probability, edging out 80-81°F at 29%, reflecting tight model consensus from NOAA's National Weather Service forecast high of 82°F under a building subtropical ridge. Persistent high pressure over Florida suppresses thunderstorms while allowing sea-breeze moderation, capping peaks amid dewpoints near 70°F that temper heat index. Ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF show a 2-3°F spread, with slight warm anomalies from above-average Atlantic sea surface temperatures boosting 84-85°F odds to 16.5%; cooler outliers below 80°F hinge on unexpected frontal intrusions, rare this late March per climatology averaging 81°F highs.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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