Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 13–16°C for Seoul's March 26 high, driven by ensemble weather models from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and ECMWF projecting mild conditions amid a weakening East Asian winter monsoon. KMA's latest forecast implies a peak near 14°C under partly cloudy skies, while ECMWF variants nudge toward 15–16°C with stronger ridging aloft; GFS holds steady at 13°C, reflecting model spread from cloud cover and southerly flow uncertainties. Historical late-March highs average 12°C, but recent warm anomalies—fueled by jet stream waviness—elevate upper-end probabilities, with traders watching today's 12Z model runs for resolution-defining clarity on diurnal maxima.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Seoul on March 26?
Highest temperature in Seoul on March 26?
13°C 21%
14°C 21%
16°C or higher 19%
15°C 17%
$47,577 Vol.
$47,577 Vol.
6°C o menos
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
1%
10°C
2%
11°C
5%
12°C
10%
13°C
21%
14°C
21%
15°C
17%
16°C or higher
19%
13°C 21%
14°C 21%
16°C or higher 19%
15°C 17%
$47,577 Vol.
$47,577 Vol.
6°C o menos
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
1%
10°C
2%
11°C
5%
12°C
10%
13°C
21%
14°C
21%
15°C
17%
16°C or higher
19%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 22, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 13–16°C for Seoul's March 26 high, driven by ensemble weather models from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and ECMWF projecting mild conditions amid a weakening East Asian winter monsoon. KMA's latest forecast implies a peak near 14°C under partly cloudy skies, while ECMWF variants nudge toward 15–16°C with stronger ridging aloft; GFS holds steady at 13°C, reflecting model spread from cloud cover and southerly flow uncertainties. Historical late-March highs average 12°C, but recent warm anomalies—fueled by jet stream waviness—elevate upper-end probabilities, with traders watching today's 12Z model runs for resolution-defining clarity on diurnal maxima.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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