Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast model agreement for Warsaw's highest temperature on March 29, with ECMWF and GFS ensembles centering outcomes around 13–15°C amid a mild westerly flow from an Atlantic high-pressure ridge. Latest 12Z runs from March 28 show mean projections of 13.5°C, with spread driven by varying cloud cover simulations and boundary-layer mixing—slight overcast in some members caps at 13°C, while clearer skies boost to 15°C. Above-normal odds stem from recent synoptic evolution, including weakened cold air intrusions over Central Europe. Historical March maxima average 9°C, but current setup favors 4–6°C anomalies. Watch 00Z ECMWF/GFS updates tonight for potential refinements ahead of resolution at Warsaw's official Chopin Airport station.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Warsaw on March 29?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on March 29?
13°C 27%
14°C 19%
12°C 18%
15°C 12%
7°C or below
2%
8°C
6%
9°C
5%
10°C
8%
11°C
11%
12°C
15%
13°C
27%
14°C
22%
15°C
19%
16°C
12%
17°C or higher
11%
13°C 27%
14°C 19%
12°C 18%
15°C 12%
7°C or below
2%
8°C
6%
9°C
5%
10°C
8%
11°C
11%
12°C
15%
13°C
27%
14°C
22%
15°C
19%
16°C
12%
17°C or higher
11%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 25, 2026, 6:36 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast model agreement for Warsaw's highest temperature on March 29, with ECMWF and GFS ensembles centering outcomes around 13–15°C amid a mild westerly flow from an Atlantic high-pressure ridge. Latest 12Z runs from March 28 show mean projections of 13.5°C, with spread driven by varying cloud cover simulations and boundary-layer mixing—slight overcast in some members caps at 13°C, while clearer skies boost to 15°C. Above-normal odds stem from recent synoptic evolution, including weakened cold air intrusions over Central Europe. Historical March maxima average 9°C, but current setup favors 4–6°C anomalies. Watch 00Z ECMWF/GFS updates tonight for potential refinements ahead of resolution at Warsaw's official Chopin Airport station.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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