Market-implied odds show near parity between a 31°C-or-higher low (48.5%) and 21°C-or-below (47.5%), underscoring trader uncertainty over Manila’s overnight minimum on August 24. The southwest monsoon (Habagat) currently drives widespread cloud cover and scattered showers across Luzon, which PAGASA forecasts will persist through Monday and limit nighttime radiative cooling while also suppressing daytime heating. Ensemble models diverge on rainfall intensity and timing, creating a wide plausible range for the low: heavier, persistent rain could drop temperatures toward the lower tail, whereas breaks in cloud cover might hold the minimum near or above 28°C. Historical August lows average near 25°C, but recent monsoon-enhanced conditions have produced both warmer and cooler outliers. Fresh PAGASA and global model runs expected within 24 hours will likely sharpen the outlook ahead of market resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más baja en Manila el 24 de agosto?
¿Temperatura más baja en Manila el 24 de agosto?
21°C o menos 88%
31°C o más 86%
28°C 51%
29°C 51%
NUEVO
NUEVO
24 ago 2026
21°C o menos
88%
22°C
49%
23°C
49%
24°C
50%
25°C
27%
26°C
27%
27°C
27%
28°C
51%
29°C
51%
30°C
5%
31°C o más
86%
21°C o menos 88%
31°C o más 86%
28°C 51%
29°C 51%
NUEVO
NUEVO
24 ago 2026
21°C o menos
$0 Vol.
88%
22°C
$0 Vol.
49%
23°C
$0 Vol.
49%
24°C
$0 Vol.
50%
25°C
$0 Vol.
27%
26°C
$0 Vol.
27%
27°C
$0 Vol.
27%
28°C
$0 Vol.
51%
29°C
$0 Vol.
51%
30°C
$0 Vol.
5%
31°C o más
$0 Vol.
86%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Market-implied odds show near parity between a 31°C-or-higher low (48.5%) and 21°C-or-below (47.5%), underscoring trader uncertainty over Manila’s overnight minimum on August 24. The southwest monsoon (Habagat) currently drives widespread cloud cover and scattered showers across Luzon, which PAGASA forecasts will persist through Monday and limit nighttime radiative cooling while also suppressing daytime heating. Ensemble models diverge on rainfall intensity and timing, creating a wide plausible range for the low: heavier, persistent rain could drop temperatures toward the lower tail, whereas breaks in cloud cover might hold the minimum near or above 28°C. Historical August lows average near 25°C, but recent monsoon-enhanced conditions have produced both warmer and cooler outliers. Fresh PAGASA and global model runs expected within 24 hours will likely sharpen the outlook ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Aug 22, 2026, 12:32 AM ET
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
24 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 22, 2026, 12:32 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Market-implied odds show near parity between a 31°C-or-higher low (48.5%) and 21°C-or-below (47.5%), underscoring trader uncertainty over Manila’s overnight minimum on August 24. The southwest monsoon (Habagat) currently drives widespread cloud cover and scattered showers across Luzon, which PAGASA forecasts will persist through Monday and limit nighttime radiative cooling while also suppressing daytime heating. Ensemble models diverge on rainfall intensity and timing, creating a wide plausible range for the low: heavier, persistent rain could drop temperatures toward the lower tail, whereas breaks in cloud cover might hold the minimum near or above 28°C. Historical August lows average near 25°C, but recent monsoon-enhanced conditions have produced both warmer and cooler outliers. Fresh PAGASA and global model runs expected within 24 hours will likely sharpen the outlook ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
24 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 22, 2026, 12:32 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Market-implied odds show near parity between a 31°C-or-higher low (48.5%) and 21°C-or-below (47.5%), underscoring trader uncertainty over Manila’s overnight minimum on August 24. The southwest monsoon (Habagat) currently drives widespread cloud cover and scattered showers across Luzon, which PAGASA forecasts will persist through Monday and limit nighttime radiative cooling while also suppressing daytime heating. Ensemble models diverge on rainfall intensity and timing, creating a wide plausible range for the low: heavier, persistent rain could drop temperatures toward the lower tail, whereas breaks in cloud cover might hold the minimum near or above 28°C. Historical August lows average near 25°C, but recent monsoon-enhanced conditions have produced both warmer and cooler outliers. Fresh PAGASA and global model runs expected within 24 hours will likely sharpen the outlook ahead of market resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes