Virginia’s Democratic-led legislature advanced a constitutional amendment and new congressional map through a April 2026 referendum to enable mid-decade redistricting ahead of the midterms, but the Virginia Supreme Court ruled in May that procedural violations in placing the measure on the ballot rendered the voter-approved changes invalid. The U.S. Supreme Court later denied further review, leaving the existing districts—drawn after the 2020 census and used in prior cycles—intact. Traders assign 96.2% probability to no new map because these binding rulings closed the primary pathway with little time remaining before candidate filing and the November election. Late shifts remain possible only through extraordinary new litigation or legislative maneuvers that overcome established procedural barriers.