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Política·Aeropuerto

Over 400 US flights cancelled on April 7?

Market icon
Política·Aeropuerto

Over 400 US flights cancelled on April 7?

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50% probabilidad
Polymarket
NUEVO
50% probabilidad
Polymarket
NUEVO
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on FlightAware is greater than 400 when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after April 7, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to "No".Trader consensus holds "Yes" at 50% for over 400 US flight cancellations on April 7, balancing forecasts of continued severe weather risks against uncertain impacts on that specific Monday. Recent FAA reports highlight thunderstorms affecting hubs like Orlando, Tampa, Detroit, and Memphis today, while Easter weekend outlooks warn of peak storms Saturday in the Southern Plains to Ohio Valley, with heavy snow and ice in the northern Plains and Midwest through April 4—potentially causing ripple delays into next week amid high spring break and post-holiday volumes. Recent precedents like 261 cancellations on April 1 underscore weather sensitivity, but no FAA ground stops or airline waivers are announced for April 7 yet. Updated NOAA severe thunderstorm or tornado outlooks for Midwest/Southeast flight corridors could push odds higher; clearer models or absent disruptions would favor "No."

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on FlightAware is greater than 400 when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after April 7, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time.

If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to "No".
Volumen
$0
Fecha de finalización
7 abr 2026
Mercado abierto
Apr 3, 2026, 7:27 PM ET

Fuente de resolución

https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on FlightAware is greater than 400 when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after April 7, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on FlightAware is greater than 400 when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after April 7, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to "No".Trader consensus holds "Yes" at 50% for over 400 US flight cancellations on April 7, balancing forecasts of continued severe weather risks against uncertain impacts on that specific Monday. Recent FAA reports highlight thunderstorms affecting hubs like Orlando, Tampa, Detroit, and Memphis today, while Easter weekend outlooks warn of peak storms Saturday in the Southern Plains to Ohio Valley, with heavy snow and ice in the northern Plains and Midwest through April 4—potentially causing ripple delays into next week amid high spring break and post-holiday volumes. Recent precedents like 261 cancellations on April 1 underscore weather sensitivity, but no FAA ground stops or airline waivers are announced for April 7 yet. Updated NOAA severe thunderstorm or tornado outlooks for Midwest/Southeast flight corridors could push odds higher; clearer models or absent disruptions would favor "No."

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on FlightAware is greater than 400 when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after April 7, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time.

If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to "No".
Volumen
$0
Fecha de finalización
7 abr 2026
Mercado abierto
Apr 3, 2026, 7:27 PM ET

Fuente de resolución

https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on FlightAware is greater than 400 when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after April 7, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to "No".

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Over 400 US flights cancelled on April 7?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket donde los operadores compran y venden acciones de "Sí" o "No" según si creen que este evento ocurrirá. La probabilidad actual según la comunidad es 50% para "Yes". Por ejemplo, si "Sí" se cotiza a 50¢, el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 50% de que este evento ocurra. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos e información. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"Over 400 US flights cancelled on April 7?" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Apr 3, 2026. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "Over 400 US flights cancelled on April 7?", simplemente elige si crees que la respuesta es "Sí" o "No". Cada lado tiene un precio actual que refleja la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si compras acciones de "Sí" y el resultado se resuelve como "Sí", cada acción paga $1. Si se resuelve como "No", tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución para asegurar ganancias o limitar pérdidas.

La probabilidad actual para "Over 400 US flights cancelled on April 7?" es 50% para "Yes". Esto significa que la comunidad de Polymarket actualmente cree que hay una probabilidad de 50% de que este evento ocurra. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real basándose en operaciones reales, proporcionando una señal continuamente actualizada de lo que el mercado espera.

Las reglas de resolución para "Over 400 US flights cancelled on April 7?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.