Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 62% implied probability that President Trump drops the DOJ probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's handling of headquarters renovations before Kevin Warsh's Senate confirmation as his successor, driven by key Republican senators like Thom Tillis and John Thune conditioning support on probe resolution amid Powell's May 15 term end. Trump's April 15 insistence on continuing the investigation—citing alleged incompetence—clashes with GOP pleas to expedite closure for a smooth transition, as Warsh's confirmation hearing looms next week. This tension elevates uncertainty in Fed leadership expectations, with markets pricing Warsh's hawkish monetary policy stance versus Powell's dovish path influencing Treasury yields and rate cut bets. Resolution hinges on DOJ speed and Senate dynamics.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoNUEVO
NUEVO
31 oct 2026
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 oct 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell over his congressional testimony in June 2025 about the renovation of the Central Bank’s headquarters is dropped before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The investigation will be considered to be dropped if it is definitively announced by the DoJ, Donald Trump, or other relevant members of the Trump Administration that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment, or if the investigation is otherwise confirmed to have ended without charges by a broad consensus of credible reporting.
If the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell as a result of this investigation prior to Warsh’s confirmation, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. federal government. However, consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 62% implied probability that President Trump drops the DOJ probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's handling of headquarters renovations before Kevin Warsh's Senate confirmation as his successor, driven by key Republican senators like Thom Tillis and John Thune conditioning support on probe resolution amid Powell's May 15 term end. Trump's April 15 insistence on continuing the investigation—citing alleged incompetence—clashes with GOP pleas to expedite closure for a smooth transition, as Warsh's confirmation hearing looms next week. This tension elevates uncertainty in Fed leadership expectations, with markets pricing Warsh's hawkish monetary policy stance versus Powell's dovish path influencing Treasury yields and rate cut bets. Resolution hinges on DOJ speed and Senate dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell over his congressional testimony in June 2025 about the renovation of the Central Bank’s headquarters is dropped before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The investigation will be considered to be dropped if it is definitively announced by the DoJ, Donald Trump, or other relevant members of the Trump Administration that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment, or if the investigation is otherwise confirmed to have ended without charges by a broad consensus of credible reporting.
If the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell as a result of this investigation prior to Warsh’s confirmation, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. federal government. However, consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The investigation will be considered to be dropped if it is definitively announced by the DoJ, Donald Trump, or other relevant members of the Trump Administration that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment, or if the investigation is otherwise confirmed to have ended without charges by a broad consensus of credible reporting.
If the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell as a result of this investigation prior to Warsh’s confirmation, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. federal government. However, consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Apr 16, 2026, 10:48 AM ET
Volumen
$148Fecha de finalización
31 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 16, 2026, 10:48 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell over his congressional testimony in June 2025 about the renovation of the Central Bank’s headquarters is dropped before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The investigation will be considered to be dropped if it is definitively announced by the DoJ, Donald Trump, or other relevant members of the Trump Administration that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment, or if the investigation is otherwise confirmed to have ended without charges by a broad consensus of credible reporting.
If the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell as a result of this investigation prior to Warsh’s confirmation, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. federal government. However, consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 62% implied probability that President Trump drops the DOJ probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's handling of headquarters renovations before Kevin Warsh's Senate confirmation as his successor, driven by key Republican senators like Thom Tillis and John Thune conditioning support on probe resolution amid Powell's May 15 term end. Trump's April 15 insistence on continuing the investigation—citing alleged incompetence—clashes with GOP pleas to expedite closure for a smooth transition, as Warsh's confirmation hearing looms next week. This tension elevates uncertainty in Fed leadership expectations, with markets pricing Warsh's hawkish monetary policy stance versus Powell's dovish path influencing Treasury yields and rate cut bets. Resolution hinges on DOJ speed and Senate dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell over his congressional testimony in June 2025 about the renovation of the Central Bank’s headquarters is dropped before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The investigation will be considered to be dropped if it is definitively announced by the DoJ, Donald Trump, or other relevant members of the Trump Administration that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment, or if the investigation is otherwise confirmed to have ended without charges by a broad consensus of credible reporting.
If the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell as a result of this investigation prior to Warsh’s confirmation, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. federal government. However, consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The investigation will be considered to be dropped if it is definitively announced by the DoJ, Donald Trump, or other relevant members of the Trump Administration that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment, or if the investigation is otherwise confirmed to have ended without charges by a broad consensus of credible reporting.
If the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell as a result of this investigation prior to Warsh’s confirmation, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. federal government. However, consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$148Fecha de finalización
31 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 16, 2026, 10:48 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 62% implied probability that President Trump drops the DOJ probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's handling of headquarters renovations before Kevin Warsh's Senate confirmation as his successor, driven by key Republican senators like Thom Tillis and John Thune conditioning support on probe resolution amid Powell's May 15 term end. Trump's April 15 insistence on continuing the investigation—citing alleged incompetence—clashes with GOP pleas to expedite closure for a smooth transition, as Warsh's confirmation hearing looms next week. This tension elevates uncertainty in Fed leadership expectations, with markets pricing Warsh's hawkish monetary policy stance versus Powell's dovish path influencing Treasury yields and rate cut bets. Resolution hinges on DOJ speed and Senate dynamics.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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