The US trade deficit for June 2026, scheduled for release on August 4, reflects trader focus on the 70-80 billion range at 84.5% implied probability, driven by the May total deficit of $77.6 billion and the advance June goods deficit narrowing 4.2% to $101.5 billion from $105.9 billion. Services surpluses near $29 billion have consistently offset larger goods shortfalls in recent months, keeping totals in the mid-70s amid steady import and export trends. This positioning aligns with consensus forecasts around $72-75 billion and recent Bureau of Economic Analysis patterns, where goods volatility from domestic demand and prior tariff effects has not produced outsized swings. With the report days away, markets price limited scope for deviation beyond 60-80 billion absent major revisions.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado70-80B 85%
60-70B 15%
50-60B 1.9%
80-90B 1.1%
NUEVO
NUEVO
4 ago 2026
<50B
<1%
50-60B
2%
60-70B
15%
70-80B
85%
80-90B
1%
90-100B
1%
100B+
1%
70-80B 85%
60-70B 15%
50-60B 1.9%
80-90B 1.1%
NUEVO
NUEVO
4 ago 2026
<50B
$397 Vol.
<1%
50-60B
$293 Vol.
2%
60-70B
$454 Vol.
15%
70-80B
$6,633 Vol.
85%
80-90B
$246 Vol.
1%
90-100B
$246 Vol.
1%
100B+
$357 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit for June 2026, according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report scheduled for August 4, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.The US trade deficit for June 2026, scheduled for release on August 4, reflects trader focus on the 70-80 billion range at 84.5% implied probability, driven by the May total deficit of $77.6 billion and the advance June goods deficit narrowing 4.2% to $101.5 billion from $105.9 billion. Services surpluses near $29 billion have consistently offset larger goods shortfalls in recent months, keeping totals in the mid-70s amid steady import and export trends. This positioning aligns with consensus forecasts around $72-75 billion and recent Bureau of Economic Analysis patterns, where goods volatility from domestic demand and prior tariff effects has not produced outsized swings. With the report days away, markets price limited scope for deviation beyond 60-80 billion absent major revisions.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit for June 2026, according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report scheduled for August 4, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Mercado abierto: Jul 29, 2026, 7:08 PM ET
Volumen
$8,625Fecha de finalización
4 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 29, 2026, 7:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit for June 2026, according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report scheduled for August 4, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.The US trade deficit for June 2026, scheduled for release on August 4, reflects trader focus on the 70-80 billion range at 84.5% implied probability, driven by the May total deficit of $77.6 billion and the advance June goods deficit narrowing 4.2% to $101.5 billion from $105.9 billion. Services surpluses near $29 billion have consistently offset larger goods shortfalls in recent months, keeping totals in the mid-70s amid steady import and export trends. This positioning aligns with consensus forecasts around $72-75 billion and recent Bureau of Economic Analysis patterns, where goods volatility from domestic demand and prior tariff effects has not produced outsized swings. With the report days away, markets price limited scope for deviation beyond 60-80 billion absent major revisions.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit for June 2026, according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report scheduled for August 4, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volumen
$8,625Fecha de finalización
4 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 29, 2026, 7:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The US trade deficit for June 2026, scheduled for release on August 4, reflects trader focus on the 70-80 billion range at 84.5% implied probability, driven by the May total deficit of $77.6 billion and the advance June goods deficit narrowing 4.2% to $101.5 billion from $105.9 billion. Services surpluses near $29 billion have consistently offset larger goods shortfalls in recent months, keeping totals in the mid-70s amid steady import and export trends. This positioning aligns with consensus forecasts around $72-75 billion and recent Bureau of Economic Analysis patterns, where goods volatility from domestic demand and prior tariff effects has not produced outsized swings. With the report days away, markets price limited scope for deviation beyond 60-80 billion absent major revisions.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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