Persistent fiscal deficits and debt exceeding $39 trillion continue to weigh on long-term credit metrics, yet Moody’s May 2025 downgrade to Aa1 with a stable outlook aligned all three major agencies below their top ratings without prompting further actions. Recent debt-ceiling legislation has reduced near-term political risks, and no agency has placed the U.S. on negative watch through mid-2026. Traders assign an 80% implied probability to no additional downgrade before 2027, reflecting the absence of acute catalysts such as renewed standoffs or sharper deterioration in debt-to-GDP trajectories that would justify another notch lower in the compressed timeframe.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnother US debt downgrade before 2027?
Another US debt downgrade before 2027?
$10,721 Vol.
$10,721 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$10,721 Vol.
$10,721 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Persistent fiscal deficits and debt exceeding $39 trillion continue to weigh on long-term credit metrics, yet Moody’s May 2025 downgrade to Aa1 with a stable outlook aligned all three major agencies below their top ratings without prompting further actions. Recent debt-ceiling legislation has reduced near-term political risks, and no agency has placed the U.S. on negative watch through mid-2026. Traders assign an 80% implied probability to no additional downgrade before 2027, reflecting the absence of acute catalysts such as renewed standoffs or sharper deterioration in debt-to-GDP trajectories that would justify another notch lower in the compressed timeframe.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 2:56 PM ET
Volume
$10,721End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Persistent fiscal deficits and debt exceeding $39 trillion continue to weigh on long-term credit metrics, yet Moody’s May 2025 downgrade to Aa1 with a stable outlook aligned all three major agencies below their top ratings without prompting further actions. Recent debt-ceiling legislation has reduced near-term political risks, and no agency has placed the U.S. on negative watch through mid-2026. Traders assign an 80% implied probability to no additional downgrade before 2027, reflecting the absence of acute catalysts such as renewed standoffs or sharper deterioration in debt-to-GDP trajectories that would justify another notch lower in the compressed timeframe.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$10,721End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent fiscal deficits and debt exceeding $39 trillion continue to weigh on long-term credit metrics, yet Moody’s May 2025 downgrade to Aa1 with a stable outlook aligned all three major agencies below their top ratings without prompting further actions. Recent debt-ceiling legislation has reduced near-term political risks, and no agency has placed the U.S. on negative watch through mid-2026. Traders assign an 80% implied probability to no additional downgrade before 2027, reflecting the absence of acute catalysts such as renewed standoffs or sharper deterioration in debt-to-GDP trajectories that would justify another notch lower in the compressed timeframe.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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