Trader consensus on Polymarket centers on Elon Musk posting 300-359 tweets during March 27-April 3, 2026, with 320-339 and 340-359 bins tied at 11.5% implied probabilities, reflecting his historical weekly averages of 250-450 during peak periods like 2024's election frenzy, when he hit 60+ daily posts. Recent post-election slowdown to 30-40 tweets per day has pulled odds away from 400+ ranges, but anticipation of renewed activity—tied to his DOGE advisory role, Tesla Q1 updates, or SpaceX milestones—keeps mid-300s competitive. Without confirmed events that week, markets hinge on Elon's unpredictable bursts driven by cultural controversies or platform algorithm tweaks, leaving lower bins as value plays if volume normalizes further.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated320-339 12%
340-359 12%
300-319 11%
360-379 11%
$142,920 Vol.
$142,920 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
1%
160-179
1%
180-199
2%
200-219
4%
220-239
5%
240-259
6%
260-279
7%
280-299
10%
300-319
11%
320-339
12%
340-359
12%
360-379
11%
380-399
9%
400-419
4%
420-439
3%
440-459
3%
460-479
1%
480-499
1%
500-519
1%
520-539
1%
540-559
1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
320-339 12%
340-359 12%
300-319 11%
360-379 11%
$142,920 Vol.
$142,920 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
1%
160-179
1%
180-199
2%
200-219
4%
220-239
5%
240-259
6%
260-279
7%
280-299
10%
300-319
11%
320-339
12%
340-359
12%
360-379
11%
380-399
9%
400-419
4%
420-439
3%
440-459
3%
460-479
1%
480-499
1%
500-519
1%
520-539
1%
540-559
1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket centers on Elon Musk posting 300-359 tweets during March 27-April 3, 2026, with 320-339 and 340-359 bins tied at 11.5% implied probabilities, reflecting his historical weekly averages of 250-450 during peak periods like 2024's election frenzy, when he hit 60+ daily posts. Recent post-election slowdown to 30-40 tweets per day has pulled odds away from 400+ ranges, but anticipation of renewed activity—tied to his DOGE advisory role, Tesla Q1 updates, or SpaceX milestones—keeps mid-300s competitive. Without confirmed events that week, markets hinge on Elon's unpredictable bursts driven by cultural controversies or platform algorithm tweaks, leaving lower bins as value plays if volume normalizes further.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated



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