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Politics·Global Elections

Farrer By-Election Winner

icon for Farrer By-Election Winner
Politics·Global Elections

Farrer By-Election Winner

David Farley 100.0%

Rebecca Scriven <1%

Raissa Butkowski <1%

Michelle Milthorpe <1%

Polymarket

$499,060 Vol.

David Farley 100.0%

Rebecca Scriven <1%

Raissa Butkowski <1%

Michelle Milthorpe <1%

Polymarket

$499,060 Vol.

icon for Rebecca Scriven

Rebecca Scriven

$265,702 Vol.

No

icon for Raissa Butkowski

Raissa Butkowski

$17,778 Vol.

No

icon for Michelle Milthorpe

Michelle Milthorpe

$84,703 Vol.

No

icon for Helen Dalton

Helen Dalton

$56,332 Vol.

No

icon for David Farley

David Farley

$74,546 Vol.

Yes

A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).One Nation candidate David Farley has secured a commanding victory in the federal Farrer by-election held on May 9, 2026, marking the party's historic first win in a House of Representatives seat after former Liberal MP Sussan Ley's resignation following her leadership loss. Early counts show Farley's primary vote surging to around 40% with a two-candidate preferred margin of approximately 57% over independent Michelle Milthorpe, amid a 31-point crash in the Liberal primary for Raissa Butkowski to 12% and negligible support for Family First's Rebecca Scriven. Trader consensus at 100% for Farley reflects official projections and declarations from the Australian Electoral Commission, with Family First's Scriven, Liberal's Butkowski, and non-candidate Helen Dalton trailing at 0.1%. Scenarios challenging this include rare recount demands or postal vote shifts, though the wide margin makes resolution certain absent extraordinary procedural disputes.

A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).
Volume
$499,060
End Date
May 9, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 17, 2026, 5:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).One Nation candidate David Farley has secured a commanding victory in the federal Farrer by-election held on May 9, 2026, marking the party's historic first win in a House of Representatives seat after former Liberal MP Sussan Ley's resignation following her leadership loss. Early counts show Farley's primary vote surging to around 40% with a two-candidate preferred margin of approximately 57% over independent Michelle Milthorpe, amid a 31-point crash in the Liberal primary for Raissa Butkowski to 12% and negligible support for Family First's Rebecca Scriven. Trader consensus at 100% for Farley reflects official projections and declarations from the Australian Electoral Commission, with Family First's Scriven, Liberal's Butkowski, and non-candidate Helen Dalton trailing at 0.1%. Scenarios challenging this include rare recount demands or postal vote shifts, though the wide margin makes resolution certain absent extraordinary procedural disputes.

A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).
Volume
$499,060
End Date
May 9, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 17, 2026, 5:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Farrer By-Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "David Farley" at 100%, followed by "Rebecca Scriven" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Farrer By-Election Winner" has generated $499.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 17, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Farrer By-Election Winner," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Farrer By-Election Winner" is "David Farley" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Rebecca Scriven" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Farrer By-Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.