Elevated inflation readings and a stable labor market underpin the 92.5% market-implied probability of no change at the July 28–29 FOMC meeting. April–May 2026 CPI near 3.8% and core PCE around 3.3%, boosted by energy prices tied to Middle East tensions, have kept the Fed on hold after the anticipated steady outcome at the June 16–17 gathering. With the federal funds rate at 3.75% and unemployment holding at 4.3%, trader consensus reflects limited near-term policy pressure. A sharper inflation decline or notable labor-market softening ahead of the July decision could still tilt odds toward a 25-basis-point cut, though such shifts appear unlikely given recent data trends.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoDecyzja Fed w lipcu?
Decyzja Fed w lipcu?
Brak zmiany 93%
Podwyżka o 25 pb 3.4%
Obniżka o 25 pb 2.4%
Obniżka o 50+ pb <1%
$9,820,081 Wol.
$9,820,081 Wol.
Jul 29, 2026
Obniżka o 50+ pb
1%
Obniżka o 25 pb
2%
Brak zmiany
93%
Podwyżka o 25 pb
3%
Podwyżka o 50+ pb
<1%
Brak zmiany 93%
Podwyżka o 25 pb 3.4%
Obniżka o 25 pb 2.4%
Obniżka o 50+ pb <1%
$9,820,081 Wol.
$9,820,081 Wol.
Jul 29, 2026
Obniżka o 50+ pb
$1,444,420 Wol.
1%
Obniżka o 25 pb
$1,069,071 Wol.
2%
Brak zmiany
$1,625,005 Wol.
93%
Podwyżka o 25 pb
$4,115,297 Wol.
3%
Podwyżka o 50+ pb
$1,567,406 Wol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation readings and a stable labor market underpin the 92.5% market-implied probability of no change at the July 28–29 FOMC meeting. April–May 2026 CPI near 3.8% and core PCE around 3.3%, boosted by energy prices tied to Middle East tensions, have kept the Fed on hold after the anticipated steady outcome at the June 16–17 gathering. With the federal funds rate at 3.75% and unemployment holding at 4.3%, trader consensus reflects limited near-term policy pressure. A sharper inflation decline or notable labor-market softening ahead of the July decision could still tilt odds toward a 25-basis-point cut, though such shifts appear unlikely given recent data trends.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Rynek otwarty: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Wolumen
$9,820,081Data zakończenia
Jul 29, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation readings and a stable labor market underpin the 92.5% market-implied probability of no change at the July 28–29 FOMC meeting. April–May 2026 CPI near 3.8% and core PCE around 3.3%, boosted by energy prices tied to Middle East tensions, have kept the Fed on hold after the anticipated steady outcome at the June 16–17 gathering. With the federal funds rate at 3.75% and unemployment holding at 4.3%, trader consensus reflects limited near-term policy pressure. A sharper inflation decline or notable labor-market softening ahead of the July decision could still tilt odds toward a 25-basis-point cut, though such shifts appear unlikely given recent data trends.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Wolumen
$9,820,081Data zakończenia
Jul 29, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation readings and a stable labor market underpin the 92.5% market-implied probability of no change at the July 28–29 FOMC meeting. April–May 2026 CPI near 3.8% and core PCE around 3.3%, boosted by energy prices tied to Middle East tensions, have kept the Fed on hold after the anticipated steady outcome at the June 16–17 gathering. With the federal funds rate at 3.75% and unemployment holding at 4.3%, trader consensus reflects limited near-term policy pressure. A sharper inflation decline or notable labor-market softening ahead of the July decision could still tilt odds toward a 25-basis-point cut, though such shifts appear unlikely given recent data trends.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania