xAI released Grok 4.3 in early May 2026 as its fastest and most capable model to date, topping benchmarks in tool use and enterprise tasks while supporting a 1 million token context window. Elon Musk has since highlighted ongoing improvements to the 0.5T foundation model and completion of a 1.5T version now entering supplemental training, with a target release in roughly three to four weeks. Earlier roadmaps positioned a 1T-parameter Grok 4.4 for mid-to-late May, but recent statements suggest possible delays or a shift toward the larger variant originally slated as 4.5. Traders monitor xAI announcements, API updates, and Musk’s posts for confirmation amid xAI’s rapid iteration cycle and competition from other frontier labs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
Jun 30, 2026
May 31
19%
June 15
30%
June 30
77%
$62 Vol.
May 31
$20 Vol.
19%
June 15
$2 Vol.
30%
June 30
$40 Vol.
77%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4.4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.xAI released Grok 4.3 in early May 2026 as its fastest and most capable model to date, topping benchmarks in tool use and enterprise tasks while supporting a 1 million token context window. Elon Musk has since highlighted ongoing improvements to the 0.5T foundation model and completion of a 1.5T version now entering supplemental training, with a target release in roughly three to four weeks. Earlier roadmaps positioned a 1T-parameter Grok 4.4 for mid-to-late May, but recent statements suggest possible delays or a shift toward the larger variant originally slated as 4.5. Traders monitor xAI announcements, API updates, and Musk’s posts for confirmation amid xAI’s rapid iteration cycle and competition from other frontier labs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4.4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: May 22, 2026, 12:34 PM ET
Volume
$62End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
May 22, 2026, 12:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4.4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.xAI released Grok 4.3 in early May 2026 as its fastest and most capable model to date, topping benchmarks in tool use and enterprise tasks while supporting a 1 million token context window. Elon Musk has since highlighted ongoing improvements to the 0.5T foundation model and completion of a 1.5T version now entering supplemental training, with a target release in roughly three to four weeks. Earlier roadmaps positioned a 1T-parameter Grok 4.4 for mid-to-late May, but recent statements suggest possible delays or a shift toward the larger variant originally slated as 4.5. Traders monitor xAI announcements, API updates, and Musk’s posts for confirmation amid xAI’s rapid iteration cycle and competition from other frontier labs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4.4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$62End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
May 22, 2026, 12:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...xAI released Grok 4.3 in early May 2026 as its fastest and most capable model to date, topping benchmarks in tool use and enterprise tasks while supporting a 1 million token context window. Elon Musk has since highlighted ongoing improvements to the 0.5T foundation model and completion of a 1.5T version now entering supplemental training, with a target release in roughly three to four weeks. Earlier roadmaps positioned a 1T-parameter Grok 4.4 for mid-to-late May, but recent statements suggest possible delays or a shift toward the larger variant originally slated as 4.5. Traders monitor xAI announcements, API updates, and Musk’s posts for confirmation amid xAI’s rapid iteration cycle and competition from other frontier labs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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