Current National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance point to a hot, mostly sunny day across central Texas with highs near 99–101°F, driven by a strong subtropical ridge and limited cloud cover or afternoon convection. Trader consensus clusters around the 98–101°F bins because small differences in dewpoint recovery, boundary-layer mixing, or the exact timing of any scattered storms can shift the daily maximum by 2–3°F. Historical August climatology for Austin shows frequent 100°F+ readings, yet recent model runs have trended slightly cooler than earlier projections, keeping the 102°F+ outcomes at modest implied probabilities. Updated short-range forecasts and morning soundings tomorrow will provide the final resolution inputs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on August 2?
Highest temperature in Austin on August 2?
98-99°F 38%
100-101°F 37%
102-103°F 13%
104-105°F 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 2, 2026
91°F or below
1%
92-93°F
1%
94-95°F
2%
96-97°F
7%
98-99°F
38%
100-101°F
37%
102-103°F
13%
104-105°F
7%
106-107°F
4%
108-109°F
<1%
110°F or higher
<1%
98-99°F 38%
100-101°F 37%
102-103°F 13%
104-105°F 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 2, 2026
91°F or below
$27 Vol.
1%
92-93°F
$53 Vol.
1%
94-95°F
$17 Vol.
2%
96-97°F
$92 Vol.
7%
98-99°F
$85 Vol.
38%
100-101°F
$20 Vol.
37%
102-103°F
$0 Vol.
13%
104-105°F
$1 Vol.
7%
106-107°F
$47 Vol.
4%
108-109°F
$53 Vol.
<1%
110°F or higher
$87 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance point to a hot, mostly sunny day across central Texas with highs near 99–101°F, driven by a strong subtropical ridge and limited cloud cover or afternoon convection. Trader consensus clusters around the 98–101°F bins because small differences in dewpoint recovery, boundary-layer mixing, or the exact timing of any scattered storms can shift the daily maximum by 2–3°F. Historical August climatology for Austin shows frequent 100°F+ readings, yet recent model runs have trended slightly cooler than earlier projections, keeping the 102°F+ outcomes at modest implied probabilities. Updated short-range forecasts and morning soundings tomorrow will provide the final resolution inputs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
Volume
$481End Date
Aug 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance point to a hot, mostly sunny day across central Texas with highs near 99–101°F, driven by a strong subtropical ridge and limited cloud cover or afternoon convection. Trader consensus clusters around the 98–101°F bins because small differences in dewpoint recovery, boundary-layer mixing, or the exact timing of any scattered storms can shift the daily maximum by 2–3°F. Historical August climatology for Austin shows frequent 100°F+ readings, yet recent model runs have trended slightly cooler than earlier projections, keeping the 102°F+ outcomes at modest implied probabilities. Updated short-range forecasts and morning soundings tomorrow will provide the final resolution inputs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$481End Date
Aug 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance point to a hot, mostly sunny day across central Texas with highs near 99–101°F, driven by a strong subtropical ridge and limited cloud cover or afternoon convection. Trader consensus clusters around the 98–101°F bins because small differences in dewpoint recovery, boundary-layer mixing, or the exact timing of any scattered storms can shift the daily maximum by 2–3°F. Historical August climatology for Austin shows frequent 100°F+ readings, yet recent model runs have trended slightly cooler than earlier projections, keeping the 102°F+ outcomes at modest implied probabilities. Updated short-range forecasts and morning soundings tomorrow will provide the final resolution inputs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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