National Weather Service forecasts for Chicago O'Hare International Airport indicate a high near 51°F on April 5, driving trader consensus toward the 50-51°F (24.5%) and 52-53°F (21.5%) outcomes amid a stalling upper trough over the Great Lakes promoting northwest cold air advection. A recent cold front following early April warmth and active storms—capped by April 1's subnormal 39°F high—has ushered seasonably cool conditions below the 54.8°F climatological average, with mostly cloudy skies limiting solar heating. Differentiating factors include lingering effects from the Flood Watch ending early April 5, cloud cover persistence, and boundary layer mixing variability across GFS and ECMWF ensembles. New NOAA model runs expected this afternoon may refine the tightly contested probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chicago on April 5?
Highest temperature in Chicago on April 5?
50-51°F 25%
52-53°F 23%
48-49°F 18%
54-55°F 15%
NEW
NEW
Apr 5, 2026
37°F or below
<1%
38-39°F
<1%
40-41°F
<1%
42-43°F
2%
44-45°F
8%
46-47°F
8%
48-49°F
18%
50-51°F
25%
52-53°F
23%
54-55°F
15%
56°F or higher
10%
50-51°F 25%
52-53°F 23%
48-49°F 18%
54-55°F 15%
NEW
NEW
Apr 5, 2026
37°F or below
$724 Vol.
<1%
38-39°F
$573 Vol.
<1%
40-41°F
$718 Vol.
<1%
42-43°F
$1,079 Vol.
2%
44-45°F
$676 Vol.
8%
46-47°F
$716 Vol.
8%
48-49°F
$798 Vol.
18%
50-51°F
$1,074 Vol.
25%
52-53°F
$837 Vol.
23%
54-55°F
$903 Vol.
15%
56°F or higher
$1,410 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service forecasts for Chicago O'Hare International Airport indicate a high near 51°F on April 5, driving trader consensus toward the 50-51°F (24.5%) and 52-53°F (21.5%) outcomes amid a stalling upper trough over the Great Lakes promoting northwest cold air advection. A recent cold front following early April warmth and active storms—capped by April 1's subnormal 39°F high—has ushered seasonably cool conditions below the 54.8°F climatological average, with mostly cloudy skies limiting solar heating. Differentiating factors include lingering effects from the Flood Watch ending early April 5, cloud cover persistence, and boundary layer mixing variability across GFS and ECMWF ensembles. New NOAA model runs expected this afternoon may refine the tightly contested probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Volume
$9,509End Date
Apr 5, 2026Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service forecasts for Chicago O'Hare International Airport indicate a high near 51°F on April 5, driving trader consensus toward the 50-51°F (24.5%) and 52-53°F (21.5%) outcomes amid a stalling upper trough over the Great Lakes promoting northwest cold air advection. A recent cold front following early April warmth and active storms—capped by April 1's subnormal 39°F high—has ushered seasonably cool conditions below the 54.8°F climatological average, with mostly cloudy skies limiting solar heating. Differentiating factors include lingering effects from the Flood Watch ending early April 5, cloud cover persistence, and boundary layer mixing variability across GFS and ECMWF ensembles. New NOAA model runs expected this afternoon may refine the tightly contested probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$9,509End Date
Apr 5, 2026Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...National Weather Service forecasts for Chicago O'Hare International Airport indicate a high near 51°F on April 5, driving trader consensus toward the 50-51°F (24.5%) and 52-53°F (21.5%) outcomes amid a stalling upper trough over the Great Lakes promoting northwest cold air advection. A recent cold front following early April warmth and active storms—capped by April 1's subnormal 39°F high—has ushered seasonably cool conditions below the 54.8°F climatological average, with mostly cloudy skies limiting solar heating. Differentiating factors include lingering effects from the Flood Watch ending early April 5, cloud cover persistence, and boundary layer mixing variability across GFS and ECMWF ensembles. New NOAA model runs expected this afternoon may refine the tightly contested probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions