Divergent ensemble guidance from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models drives the tight race in trader sentiment for Chicago's April 4 high temperature, with means clustering in the mid-50s to low-60s°F amid springtime uncertainty. Following April 1's anomalously cold 39°F high—15°F below normal under a lingering upper-level trough—forecasts depict partial ridging and southerly winds potentially pushing temperatures above the National Weather Service's 54.4°F climatological normal, though persistent cloud cover and frontal timing introduce variability across 57°F-or-below to 64-65°F bins. NOAA Climate Prediction Center's equal-chance spring outlook underscores this balance; watch April 3's 12z model runs and NWS updates for shifts ahead of resolution via official O'Hare observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chicago on April 4?
Highest temperature in Chicago on April 4?
57°F or below 24%
62-63°F 22%
58-59°F 19%
60-61°F 17%
$41,394 Vol.
$41,394 Vol.
Apr 4, 2026
57°F or below
24%
58-59°F
19%
60-61°F
17%
62-63°F
22%
64-65°F
14%
66-67°F
5%
68-69°F
1%
70-71°F
1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76°F or higher
<1%
57°F or below 24%
62-63°F 22%
58-59°F 19%
60-61°F 17%
$41,394 Vol.
$41,394 Vol.
Apr 4, 2026
57°F or below
$5,448 Vol.
24%
58-59°F
$3,463 Vol.
19%
60-61°F
$3,954 Vol.
17%
62-63°F
$3,511 Vol.
22%
64-65°F
$3,292 Vol.
14%
66-67°F
$3,688 Vol.
5%
68-69°F
$4,094 Vol.
1%
70-71°F
$3,447 Vol.
1%
72-73°F
$5,133 Vol.
<1%
74-75°F
$1,449 Vol.
<1%
76°F or higher
$3,928 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Divergent ensemble guidance from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models drives the tight race in trader sentiment for Chicago's April 4 high temperature, with means clustering in the mid-50s to low-60s°F amid springtime uncertainty. Following April 1's anomalously cold 39°F high—15°F below normal under a lingering upper-level trough—forecasts depict partial ridging and southerly winds potentially pushing temperatures above the National Weather Service's 54.4°F climatological normal, though persistent cloud cover and frontal timing introduce variability across 57°F-or-below to 64-65°F bins. NOAA Climate Prediction Center's equal-chance spring outlook underscores this balance; watch April 3's 12z model runs and NWS updates for shifts ahead of resolution via official O'Hare observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 29, 2026, 4:52 PM ET
Volume
$41,394End Date
Apr 4, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 4:52 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Divergent ensemble guidance from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models drives the tight race in trader sentiment for Chicago's April 4 high temperature, with means clustering in the mid-50s to low-60s°F amid springtime uncertainty. Following April 1's anomalously cold 39°F high—15°F below normal under a lingering upper-level trough—forecasts depict partial ridging and southerly winds potentially pushing temperatures above the National Weather Service's 54.4°F climatological normal, though persistent cloud cover and frontal timing introduce variability across 57°F-or-below to 64-65°F bins. NOAA Climate Prediction Center's equal-chance spring outlook underscores this balance; watch April 3's 12z model runs and NWS updates for shifts ahead of resolution via official O'Hare observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$41,394End Date
Apr 4, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 4:52 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Divergent ensemble guidance from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models drives the tight race in trader sentiment for Chicago's April 4 high temperature, with means clustering in the mid-50s to low-60s°F amid springtime uncertainty. Following April 1's anomalously cold 39°F high—15°F below normal under a lingering upper-level trough—forecasts depict partial ridging and southerly winds potentially pushing temperatures above the National Weather Service's 54.4°F climatological normal, though persistent cloud cover and frontal timing introduce variability across 57°F-or-below to 64-65°F bins. NOAA Climate Prediction Center's equal-chance spring outlook underscores this balance; watch April 3's 12z model runs and NWS updates for shifts ahead of resolution via official O'Hare observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions