Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty for Beijing's highest temperature on April 6, with 19°C leading at 32% implied probability ahead of 20°C or higher at 28.7%, driven by the China Meteorological Administration's (CMA) latest April 3 forecast projecting 16-19°C amid northerly cold air advection and clear skies suppressing peaks. Differentiating factors include ensemble spreads in ECMWF and GFS models, where subtle variations in boundary-layer mixing, low-level winds, and potential afternoon cloudiness could yield 1-2°C swings—warmer under stronger solar heating, cooler with gustier northerlies. Recent highs of 19°C on April 4-5 align with this range, typical for early spring's volatile frontal patterns; updated 12z runs today may sharpen guidance before resolution at Beijing Capital International Airport.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on April 6?
Highest temperature in Beijing on April 6?
19°C 33%
20°C or higher 31.1%
18°C 19%
17°C 10%
$10,550 Vol.
$10,550 Vol.
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
1%
13°C
1%
14°C
1%
15°C
3%
16°C
5%
17°C
10%
18°C
19%
19°C
33%
20°C or higher
31%
19°C 33%
20°C or higher 31.1%
18°C 19%
17°C 10%
$10,550 Vol.
$10,550 Vol.
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
1%
13°C
1%
14°C
1%
15°C
3%
16°C
5%
17°C
10%
18°C
19%
19°C
33%
20°C or higher
31%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 2, 2026, 6:31 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty for Beijing's highest temperature on April 6, with 19°C leading at 32% implied probability ahead of 20°C or higher at 28.7%, driven by the China Meteorological Administration's (CMA) latest April 3 forecast projecting 16-19°C amid northerly cold air advection and clear skies suppressing peaks. Differentiating factors include ensemble spreads in ECMWF and GFS models, where subtle variations in boundary-layer mixing, low-level winds, and potential afternoon cloudiness could yield 1-2°C swings—warmer under stronger solar heating, cooler with gustier northerlies. Recent highs of 19°C on April 4-5 align with this range, typical for early spring's volatile frontal patterns; updated 12z runs today may sharpen guidance before resolution at Beijing Capital International Airport.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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