Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters tightly around 20–21°C outcomes at roughly 20% implied probabilities each for Beijing's highest temperature on April 5, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting daytime highs of 19–21°C under mostly sunny, windy spring conditions. Early April in Beijing typically features highs averaging 18–20°C amid dry air masses, frequent cold front passages, and variable steering winds from the Mongolian high or Pacific influences, creating model spread: northerly gusts could cap peaks at 18–19°C, while clearer skies and southerly flows favor 20–21°C. Official China Meteorological Administration outlooks align at ~19°C, with next numerical weather prediction updates by April 3–4 poised to narrow uncertainty in cloud cover and boundary layer mixing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on April 5?
Highest temperature in Beijing on April 5?
20°C 26%
21°C 21%
18°C 16%
17°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Apr 5, 2026
13°C or below
1%
14°C
3%
15°C
8%
16°C
8%
17°C
15%
18°C
16%
19°C
14%
20°C
25%
21°C
21%
22°C
8%
23°C or higher
2%
20°C 26%
21°C 21%
18°C 16%
17°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Apr 5, 2026
13°C or below
$341 Vol.
1%
14°C
$387 Vol.
3%
15°C
$665 Vol.
8%
16°C
$536 Vol.
8%
17°C
$398 Vol.
15%
18°C
$218 Vol.
16%
19°C
$206 Vol.
14%
20°C
$325 Vol.
25%
21°C
$483 Vol.
21%
22°C
$318 Vol.
8%
23°C or higher
$285 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters tightly around 20–21°C outcomes at roughly 20% implied probabilities each for Beijing's highest temperature on April 5, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting daytime highs of 19–21°C under mostly sunny, windy spring conditions. Early April in Beijing typically features highs averaging 18–20°C amid dry air masses, frequent cold front passages, and variable steering winds from the Mongolian high or Pacific influences, creating model spread: northerly gusts could cap peaks at 18–19°C, while clearer skies and southerly flows favor 20–21°C. Official China Meteorological Administration outlooks align at ~19°C, with next numerical weather prediction updates by April 3–4 poised to narrow uncertainty in cloud cover and boundary layer mixing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 1, 2026, 6:06 AM ET
Volume
$4,162End Date
Apr 5, 2026Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 6:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters tightly around 20–21°C outcomes at roughly 20% implied probabilities each for Beijing's highest temperature on April 5, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting daytime highs of 19–21°C under mostly sunny, windy spring conditions. Early April in Beijing typically features highs averaging 18–20°C amid dry air masses, frequent cold front passages, and variable steering winds from the Mongolian high or Pacific influences, creating model spread: northerly gusts could cap peaks at 18–19°C, while clearer skies and southerly flows favor 20–21°C. Official China Meteorological Administration outlooks align at ~19°C, with next numerical weather prediction updates by April 3–4 poised to narrow uncertainty in cloud cover and boundary layer mixing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$4,162End Date
Apr 5, 2026Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 6:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters tightly around 20–21°C outcomes at roughly 20% implied probabilities each for Beijing's highest temperature on April 5, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting daytime highs of 19–21°C under mostly sunny, windy spring conditions. Early April in Beijing typically features highs averaging 18–20°C amid dry air masses, frequent cold front passages, and variable steering winds from the Mongolian high or Pacific influences, creating model spread: northerly gusts could cap peaks at 18–19°C, while clearer skies and southerly flows favor 20–21°C. Official China Meteorological Administration outlooks align at ~19°C, with next numerical weather prediction updates by April 3–4 poised to narrow uncertainty in cloud cover and boundary layer mixing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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