**Trader consensus has locked in a 100% implied probability for a 12°C maximum temperature in London on April 2, 2026, backed by provisional observational data from London City Airport (EGLC)—the market's designated reference station via Weather Underground—which recorded a daily high of 12°C.** This positioning stems from Met Office-verified conditions dominated by Storm Dave, an intense low-pressure system ushering northerly winds, persistent cloud cover, and gusts exceeding 30 mph, capping daytime warming despite brief sunny intervals. Pre-event UK model ensembles from the Met Office forecasted highs of 11–13°C under these steering patterns, aligning with climatological April norms around 13°C but overridden by the cyclogenesis. Final resolution hinges on uncorrected Weather Underground archives; a data revision or overlooked peripheral station outlier could challenge it, though uniform regional observations make this improbable. (118 words)
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in London on April 2?
Highest temperature in London on April 2?
12°C 100.0%
8°C or below <1%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
$510,657 Vol.
$510,657 Vol.
8°C or below
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
Yes
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C or higher
No
12°C 100.0%
8°C or below <1%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
$510,657 Vol.
$510,657 Vol.
8°C or below
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
Yes
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 29, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Trader consensus has locked in a 100% implied probability for a 12°C maximum temperature in London on April 2, 2026, backed by provisional observational data from London City Airport (EGLC)—the market's designated reference station via Weather Underground—which recorded a daily high of 12°C.** This positioning stems from Met Office-verified conditions dominated by Storm Dave, an intense low-pressure system ushering northerly winds, persistent cloud cover, and gusts exceeding 30 mph, capping daytime warming despite brief sunny intervals. Pre-event UK model ensembles from the Met Office forecasted highs of 11–13°C under these steering patterns, aligning with climatological April norms around 13°C but overridden by the cyclogenesis. Final resolution hinges on uncorrected Weather Underground archives; a data revision or overlooked peripheral station outlier could challenge it, though uniform regional observations make this improbable. (118 words)
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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