Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 27°C (31.5%) and 26°C (29.5%) as neck-and-neck leaders for Chengdu's highest temperature at Shuangliu International Airport on April 4, reflecting tight uncertainty in short-range forecast models amid the Sichuan Basin's hazy conditions. Recent GFS and ECMWF ensemble runs, updated over the past 48 hours, have converged on peaks of 26-28°C after earlier hotter outlooks (near 31°C+) faded due to persistent overcast skies and potential thermal inversions limiting insolation, as relayed in China Meteorological Administration bulletins showing April 3 highs at 24°C under overcast. Differentiation between 26°C and 27°C hinges on isolated cloud breaks during afternoon peak heating; new hourly model outputs expected later today could sharpen probabilities before resolution. Climatological April highs average 22°C, underscoring this warmer-than-normal outlook with typical basin variability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chengdu on April 4?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on April 4?
27°C 30%
26°C 29%
28°C 21%
25°C 15%
$22,500 Vol.
$22,500 Vol.
Apr 4, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
5%
25°C
15%
26°C
29%
27°C
30%
28°C
21%
29°C
5%
30°C
1%
31°C or higher
1%
27°C 30%
26°C 29%
28°C 21%
25°C 15%
$22,500 Vol.
$22,500 Vol.
Apr 4, 2026
21°C or below
$2,775 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$4,610 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$3,634 Vol.
1%
24°C
$1,812 Vol.
5%
25°C
$1,285 Vol.
15%
26°C
$1,056 Vol.
29%
27°C
$1,533 Vol.
30%
28°C
$1,197 Vol.
21%
29°C
$1,509 Vol.
5%
30°C
$611 Vol.
1%
31°C or higher
$2,485 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 27°C (31.5%) and 26°C (29.5%) as neck-and-neck leaders for Chengdu's highest temperature at Shuangliu International Airport on April 4, reflecting tight uncertainty in short-range forecast models amid the Sichuan Basin's hazy conditions. Recent GFS and ECMWF ensemble runs, updated over the past 48 hours, have converged on peaks of 26-28°C after earlier hotter outlooks (near 31°C+) faded due to persistent overcast skies and potential thermal inversions limiting insolation, as relayed in China Meteorological Administration bulletins showing April 3 highs at 24°C under overcast. Differentiation between 26°C and 27°C hinges on isolated cloud breaks during afternoon peak heating; new hourly model outputs expected later today could sharpen probabilities before resolution. Climatological April highs average 22°C, underscoring this warmer-than-normal outlook with typical basin variability.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 29, 2026, 2:45 PM ET
Volume
$22,500End Date
Apr 4, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 2:45 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 27°C (31.5%) and 26°C (29.5%) as neck-and-neck leaders for Chengdu's highest temperature at Shuangliu International Airport on April 4, reflecting tight uncertainty in short-range forecast models amid the Sichuan Basin's hazy conditions. Recent GFS and ECMWF ensemble runs, updated over the past 48 hours, have converged on peaks of 26-28°C after earlier hotter outlooks (near 31°C+) faded due to persistent overcast skies and potential thermal inversions limiting insolation, as relayed in China Meteorological Administration bulletins showing April 3 highs at 24°C under overcast. Differentiation between 26°C and 27°C hinges on isolated cloud breaks during afternoon peak heating; new hourly model outputs expected later today could sharpen probabilities before resolution. Climatological April highs average 22°C, underscoring this warmer-than-normal outlook with typical basin variability.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$22,500End Date
Apr 4, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 2:45 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 27°C (31.5%) and 26°C (29.5%) as neck-and-neck leaders for Chengdu's highest temperature at Shuangliu International Airport on April 4, reflecting tight uncertainty in short-range forecast models amid the Sichuan Basin's hazy conditions. Recent GFS and ECMWF ensemble runs, updated over the past 48 hours, have converged on peaks of 26-28°C after earlier hotter outlooks (near 31°C+) faded due to persistent overcast skies and potential thermal inversions limiting insolation, as relayed in China Meteorological Administration bulletins showing April 3 highs at 24°C under overcast. Differentiation between 26°C and 27°C hinges on isolated cloud breaks during afternoon peak heating; new hourly model outputs expected later today could sharpen probabilities before resolution. Climatological April highs average 22°C, underscoring this warmer-than-normal outlook with typical basin variability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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