Ensemble forecasts from Météo-France, ECMWF, and GFS models have converged tightly on a daytime high of 13°C at Paris Charles de Gaulle Airport, driving the 94.5% market-implied probability for this outcome amid mostly cloudy skies, light winds around 10-15 km/h, and morning temperatures starting near 11°C. Current observations confirm overcast conditions limiting solar heating, aligning with early April climatology where historical highs average 12-14°C. Trader consensus reflects this strong data-backed positioning, with skin-in-the-game bets aggregating model outputs and real-time station reports. Realistic challenges include unexpected cloud breaks boosting insolation to push toward 14°C, or isolated showers capping below 13°C; hourly Météo-France updates through afternoon will refine the trajectory as the market nears resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Paris on April 3?
Highest temperature in Paris on April 3?
13°C 96.9%
14°C 6%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$174,581 Vol.
$174,581 Vol.
12°C
<1%
13°C
97%
14°C
6%
15°C
1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C or higher
<1%
13°C 96.9%
14°C 6%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$174,581 Vol.
$174,581 Vol.
12°C
<1%
13°C
97%
14°C
6%
15°C
1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 29, 2026, 4:19 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPGResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble forecasts from Météo-France, ECMWF, and GFS models have converged tightly on a daytime high of 13°C at Paris Charles de Gaulle Airport, driving the 94.5% market-implied probability for this outcome amid mostly cloudy skies, light winds around 10-15 km/h, and morning temperatures starting near 11°C. Current observations confirm overcast conditions limiting solar heating, aligning with early April climatology where historical highs average 12-14°C. Trader consensus reflects this strong data-backed positioning, with skin-in-the-game bets aggregating model outputs and real-time station reports. Realistic challenges include unexpected cloud breaks boosting insolation to push toward 14°C, or isolated showers capping below 13°C; hourly Météo-France updates through afternoon will refine the trajectory as the market nears resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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