Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast model spreads from GFS and ECMWF ensembles projecting Mexico City's highest temperature on April 6 between 23–25°C, with 24°C leading at 31.5% implied probability amid variability in predicted cloud cover and upper-level winds. At 2,240 meters elevation, the city's highland climate moderates daytime heating during the dry season, but recent Servicio Meteorológico Nacional updates show maxima near 25°C through early April, tempered by patchy clouds and northerly flows reducing solar insolation. Differentiation hinges on southerly wind surges potentially capping highs at 23°C versus clearer skies pushing to 25°C; new 00Z/12Z runs from NOAA and ECMWF tomorrow will clarify amid historical April averages of 25–26°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Mexico City on April 6?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on April 6?
24°C 36%
23°C 28%
25°C 20%
22°C 11%
19°C or below
2%
20°C
5%
21°C
8%
22°C
11%
23°C
28%
24°C
36%
25°C
20%
26°C
7%
27°C
3%
28°C
1%
29°C or higher
1%
24°C 36%
23°C 28%
25°C 20%
22°C 11%
19°C or below
2%
20°C
5%
21°C
8%
22°C
11%
23°C
28%
24°C
36%
25°C
20%
26°C
7%
27°C
3%
28°C
1%
29°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 2, 2026, 6:20 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast model spreads from GFS and ECMWF ensembles projecting Mexico City's highest temperature on April 6 between 23–25°C, with 24°C leading at 31.5% implied probability amid variability in predicted cloud cover and upper-level winds. At 2,240 meters elevation, the city's highland climate moderates daytime heating during the dry season, but recent Servicio Meteorológico Nacional updates show maxima near 25°C through early April, tempered by patchy clouds and northerly flows reducing solar insolation. Differentiation hinges on southerly wind surges potentially capping highs at 23°C versus clearer skies pushing to 25°C; new 00Z/12Z runs from NOAA and ECMWF tomorrow will clarify amid historical April averages of 25–26°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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