Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty (100%) for Dallas's highest temperature on May 4 reaching 72°F or higher, aligned with National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts indicating a high near 84°F under mostly sunny skies and south winds of 10-20 mph gusting higher. This positioning stems from a persistent high-pressure ridge over Texas fostering adiabatic warming, ample solar insolation after a clear morning with temperatures already climbing from the low 60s, and seasonably warm air masses consistent with NOAA's spring outlook for above-normal temperatures. Model consensus from recent runs shows no significant cloud cover or frontal boundaries disrupting daytime heating. Realistic challenges would require an unforeseen marine inversion, sudden thunderstorm outflow, or measurement anomaly at official stations like Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport, though current guidance deems these improbable with resolution imminent by evening.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Dallas on May 4?
Highest temperature in Dallas on May 4?
72°F or higher 100.0%
53°F or below <1%
54-55°F <1%
56-57°F <1%
$31,952 Vol.
$31,952 Vol.
May 4, 2026
53°F or below
No
54-55°F
No
56-57°F
No
58-59°F
No
60-61°F
No
62-63°F
No
64-65°F
No
66-67°F
No
68-69°F
No
70-71°F
No
72°F or higher
Yes
72°F or higher 100.0%
53°F or below <1%
54-55°F <1%
56-57°F <1%
$31,952 Vol.
$31,952 Vol.
May 4, 2026
53°F or below
$2,098 Vol.
No
54-55°F
$952 Vol.
No
56-57°F
$957 Vol.
No
58-59°F
$957 Vol.
No
60-61°F
$1,343 Vol.
No
62-63°F
$1,790 Vol.
No
64-65°F
$1,309 Vol.
No
66-67°F
$1,438 Vol.
No
68-69°F
$2,241 Vol.
No
70-71°F
$6,271 Vol.
No
72°F or higher
$12,595 Vol.
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty (100%) for Dallas's highest temperature on May 4 reaching 72°F or higher, aligned with National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts indicating a high near 84°F under mostly sunny skies and south winds of 10-20 mph gusting higher. This positioning stems from a persistent high-pressure ridge over Texas fostering adiabatic warming, ample solar insolation after a clear morning with temperatures already climbing from the low 60s, and seasonably warm air masses consistent with NOAA's spring outlook for above-normal temperatures. Model consensus from recent runs shows no significant cloud cover or frontal boundaries disrupting daytime heating. Realistic challenges would require an unforeseen marine inversion, sudden thunderstorm outflow, or measurement anomaly at official stations like Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport, though current guidance deems these improbable with resolution imminent by evening.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 2, 2026, 12:23 AM ET
Volume
$31,952End Date
May 4, 2026Market Opened
May 2, 2026, 12:23 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty (100%) for Dallas's highest temperature on May 4 reaching 72°F or higher, aligned with National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts indicating a high near 84°F under mostly sunny skies and south winds of 10-20 mph gusting higher. This positioning stems from a persistent high-pressure ridge over Texas fostering adiabatic warming, ample solar insolation after a clear morning with temperatures already climbing from the low 60s, and seasonably warm air masses consistent with NOAA's spring outlook for above-normal temperatures. Model consensus from recent runs shows no significant cloud cover or frontal boundaries disrupting daytime heating. Realistic challenges would require an unforeseen marine inversion, sudden thunderstorm outflow, or measurement anomaly at official stations like Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport, though current guidance deems these improbable with resolution imminent by evening.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$31,952End Date
May 4, 2026Market Opened
May 2, 2026, 12:23 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty (100%) for Dallas's highest temperature on May 4 reaching 72°F or higher, aligned with National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts indicating a high near 84°F under mostly sunny skies and south winds of 10-20 mph gusting higher. This positioning stems from a persistent high-pressure ridge over Texas fostering adiabatic warming, ample solar insolation after a clear morning with temperatures already climbing from the low 60s, and seasonably warm air masses consistent with NOAA's spring outlook for above-normal temperatures. Model consensus from recent runs shows no significant cloud cover or frontal boundaries disrupting daytime heating. Realistic challenges would require an unforeseen marine inversion, sudden thunderstorm outflow, or measurement anomaly at official stations like Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport, though current guidance deems these improbable with resolution imminent by evening.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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