Latest ensemble forecasts from global and regional models indicate high uncertainty in afternoon convective activity and cloud cover over the Pearl River Delta, driving the tight clustering of trader probabilities around 32–34°C for Guangzhou’s June 20 maximum. Subtropical monsoon conditions typical for mid-June—elevated humidity near 80%, southeasterly flow, and scattered thunderstorms—can suppress or enhance peak temperatures by several degrees depending on timing and intensity of rainfall. Historical climatology shows June daily highs averaging near 32°C with occasional excursions above 35°C under clearer skies, while recent observational trends suggest no strong anomalous heat signal. The market’s dispersed odds reflect this sensitivity to the next high-resolution model runs and surface observations expected over the next 48 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Guangzhou on June 20?
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on June 20?
35°C 100.0%
29°C or below <1%
30°C <1%
31°C <1%
$99,899 Vol.
$99,899 Vol.
Jun 20, 2026
29°C or below
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
Yes
36°C
No
37°C
No
38°C
No
39°C or higher
No
35°C 100.0%
29°C or below <1%
30°C <1%
31°C <1%
$99,899 Vol.
$99,899 Vol.
Jun 20, 2026
29°C or below
$3,348 Vol.
No
30°C
$3,770 Vol.
No
31°C
$5,344 Vol.
No
32°C
$13,130 Vol.
No
33°C
$11,535 Vol.
No
34°C
$10,651 Vol.
No
35°C
$11,002 Vol.
Yes
36°C
$10,160 Vol.
No
37°C
$14,077 Vol.
No
38°C
$13,705 Vol.
No
39°C or higher
$3,177 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from global and regional models indicate high uncertainty in afternoon convective activity and cloud cover over the Pearl River Delta, driving the tight clustering of trader probabilities around 32–34°C for Guangzhou’s June 20 maximum. Subtropical monsoon conditions typical for mid-June—elevated humidity near 80%, southeasterly flow, and scattered thunderstorms—can suppress or enhance peak temperatures by several degrees depending on timing and intensity of rainfall. Historical climatology shows June daily highs averaging near 32°C with occasional excursions above 35°C under clearer skies, while recent observational trends suggest no strong anomalous heat signal. The market’s dispersed odds reflect this sensitivity to the next high-resolution model runs and surface observations expected over the next 48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 18, 2026, 12:12 AM ET
Volume
$99,899End Date
Jun 20, 2026Market Opened
Jun 18, 2026, 12:12 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from global and regional models indicate high uncertainty in afternoon convective activity and cloud cover over the Pearl River Delta, driving the tight clustering of trader probabilities around 32–34°C for Guangzhou’s June 20 maximum. Subtropical monsoon conditions typical for mid-June—elevated humidity near 80%, southeasterly flow, and scattered thunderstorms—can suppress or enhance peak temperatures by several degrees depending on timing and intensity of rainfall. Historical climatology shows June daily highs averaging near 32°C with occasional excursions above 35°C under clearer skies, while recent observational trends suggest no strong anomalous heat signal. The market’s dispersed odds reflect this sensitivity to the next high-resolution model runs and surface observations expected over the next 48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$99,899End Date
Jun 20, 2026Market Opened
Jun 18, 2026, 12:12 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Latest ensemble forecasts from global and regional models indicate high uncertainty in afternoon convective activity and cloud cover over the Pearl River Delta, driving the tight clustering of trader probabilities around 32–34°C for Guangzhou’s June 20 maximum. Subtropical monsoon conditions typical for mid-June—elevated humidity near 80%, southeasterly flow, and scattered thunderstorms—can suppress or enhance peak temperatures by several degrees depending on timing and intensity of rainfall. Historical climatology shows June daily highs averaging near 32°C with occasional excursions above 35°C under clearer skies, while recent observational trends suggest no strong anomalous heat signal. The market’s dispersed odds reflect this sensitivity to the next high-resolution model runs and surface observations expected over the next 48 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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