Official observations from Spain's Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET) at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport confirm the highest temperature on April 22 reached exactly 24°C, driving trader consensus to a 100% implied probability for this outcome amid negligible liquidity on alternatives. This aligns with pre-event forecast ensembles from ECMWF and GFS models projecting midday peaks around 23–25°C under mostly sunny skies, light southerly winds, and typical springtime continental high pressure over Iberia, which suppressed cloud cover and maximized solar heating. Historical April averages at the airport hover near 19°C, making 24°C mildly above baseline without anomalous warmth. Scenarios challenging this include rare post hoc data revisions from quality control—such as sensor recalibrations—but AEMET validations are typically final within 24 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on April 22?
Highest temperature in Madrid on April 22?
24°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$129,245 Vol.
$129,245 Vol.
Apr 22, 2026
21°C or below
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
Yes
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C or higher
No
24°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$129,245 Vol.
$129,245 Vol.
Apr 22, 2026
21°C or below
$9,855 Vol.
No
22°C
$10,090 Vol.
No
23°C
$29,029 Vol.
No
24°C
$22,644 Vol.
Yes
25°C
$20,937 Vol.
No
26°C
$12,019 Vol.
No
27°C
$8,334 Vol.
No
28°C
$5,812 Vol.
No
29°C
$4,527 Vol.
No
30°C
$3,794 Vol.
No
31°C or higher
$2,203 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observations from Spain's Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET) at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport confirm the highest temperature on April 22 reached exactly 24°C, driving trader consensus to a 100% implied probability for this outcome amid negligible liquidity on alternatives. This aligns with pre-event forecast ensembles from ECMWF and GFS models projecting midday peaks around 23–25°C under mostly sunny skies, light southerly winds, and typical springtime continental high pressure over Iberia, which suppressed cloud cover and maximized solar heating. Historical April averages at the airport hover near 19°C, making 24°C mildly above baseline without anomalous warmth. Scenarios challenging this include rare post hoc data revisions from quality control—such as sensor recalibrations—but AEMET validations are typically final within 24 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 20, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volume
$129,245End Date
Apr 22, 2026Market Opened
Apr 20, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observations from Spain's Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET) at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport confirm the highest temperature on April 22 reached exactly 24°C, driving trader consensus to a 100% implied probability for this outcome amid negligible liquidity on alternatives. This aligns with pre-event forecast ensembles from ECMWF and GFS models projecting midday peaks around 23–25°C under mostly sunny skies, light southerly winds, and typical springtime continental high pressure over Iberia, which suppressed cloud cover and maximized solar heating. Historical April averages at the airport hover near 19°C, making 24°C mildly above baseline without anomalous warmth. Scenarios challenging this include rare post hoc data revisions from quality control—such as sensor recalibrations—but AEMET validations are typically final within 24 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$129,245End Date
Apr 22, 2026Market Opened
Apr 20, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Official observations from Spain's Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET) at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport confirm the highest temperature on April 22 reached exactly 24°C, driving trader consensus to a 100% implied probability for this outcome amid negligible liquidity on alternatives. This aligns with pre-event forecast ensembles from ECMWF and GFS models projecting midday peaks around 23–25°C under mostly sunny skies, light southerly winds, and typical springtime continental high pressure over Iberia, which suppressed cloud cover and maximized solar heating. Historical April averages at the airport hover near 19°C, making 24°C mildly above baseline without anomalous warmth. Scenarios challenging this include rare post hoc data revisions from quality control—such as sensor recalibrations—but AEMET validations are typically final within 24 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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