Forecast models from agencies like the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and GFS indicate Madrid will experience peak daytime temperatures of 32–33°C on September 21 under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light southerly winds that enhance surface heating without significant mixing. This aligns with the current warm anomaly, as September 2026 readings have run several degrees above the 1991–2020 average high of 25.3°C for the date. Minor model differences in afternoon wind speed and boundary-layer moisture explain the near-even market split between 32°C and 33°C implied probabilities, with limited upside risk for 34°C or higher given stable synoptic conditions. Updated runs ahead of the daily maximum will refine the precise peak.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on September 21?
Highest temperature in Madrid on September 21?
33°C 45%
32°C 44%
34°C 9%
31°C 4%
NEW
$10,367 Vol.
NEW
$10,367 Vol.
Sep 21, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
4%
32°C
44%
33°C
45%
34°C
9%
35°C
1%
36°C or higher
<1%
33°C 45%
32°C 44%
34°C 9%
31°C 4%
NEW
$10,367 Vol.
NEW
$10,367 Vol.
Sep 21, 2026
26°C or below
$660 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$300 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$403 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$135 Vol.
1%
30°C
$119 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$384 Vol.
4%
32°C
$3,926 Vol.
44%
33°C
$3,495 Vol.
45%
34°C
$657 Vol.
9%
35°C
$156 Vol.
1%
36°C or higher
$133 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies like the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and GFS indicate Madrid will experience peak daytime temperatures of 32–33°C on September 21 under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light southerly winds that enhance surface heating without significant mixing. This aligns with the current warm anomaly, as September 2026 readings have run several degrees above the 1991–2020 average high of 25.3°C for the date. Minor model differences in afternoon wind speed and boundary-layer moisture explain the near-even market split between 32°C and 33°C implied probabilities, with limited upside risk for 34°C or higher given stable synoptic conditions. Updated runs ahead of the daily maximum will refine the precise peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$10,367End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies like the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and GFS indicate Madrid will experience peak daytime temperatures of 32–33°C on September 21 under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light southerly winds that enhance surface heating without significant mixing. This aligns with the current warm anomaly, as September 2026 readings have run several degrees above the 1991–2020 average high of 25.3°C for the date. Minor model differences in afternoon wind speed and boundary-layer moisture explain the near-even market split between 32°C and 33°C implied probabilities, with limited upside risk for 34°C or higher given stable synoptic conditions. Updated runs ahead of the daily maximum will refine the precise peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$10,367End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from agencies like the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and GFS indicate Madrid will experience peak daytime temperatures of 32–33°C on September 21 under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light southerly winds that enhance surface heating without significant mixing. This aligns with the current warm anomaly, as September 2026 readings have run several degrees above the 1991–2020 average high of 25.3°C for the date. Minor model differences in afternoon wind speed and boundary-layer moisture explain the near-even market split between 32°C and 33°C implied probabilities, with limited upside risk for 34°C or higher given stable synoptic conditions. Updated runs ahead of the daily maximum will refine the precise peak.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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