Recent numerical weather prediction models, including GFS and regional runs, indicate Madrid’s minimum temperature on September 21 will likely fall between 16–18 °C under stable high pressure, clear skies, and light winds favoring moderate radiative cooling overnight. This setup aligns with the market’s heaviest weighting on 14 °C or below (50 %) and 15 °C (20 %), as traders incorporate ensemble spread, local urban heat-island effects, and the possibility of slightly stronger nocturnal cooling than the deterministic guidance. Historical September minima near 14.6 °C provide additional context, while the absence of frontal systems or moisture keeps downside risk limited. Updated AEMET and ECMWF runs over the next 24–48 hours represent the key data releases that could shift implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Madrid on September 21?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on September 21?
14°C or below 100%
15°C 39%
16°C 19%
17°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
14°C or below
100%
15°C
39%
16°C
19%
17°C
10%
18°C
7%
19°C
4%
20°C
4%
21°C
2%
22°C
2%
23°C
2%
24°C or higher
2%
14°C or below 100%
15°C 39%
16°C 19%
17°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
14°C or below
$0 Vol.
100%
15°C
$0 Vol.
39%
16°C
$0 Vol.
19%
17°C
$0 Vol.
10%
18°C
$0 Vol.
7%
19°C
$0 Vol.
4%
20°C
$0 Vol.
4%
21°C
$0 Vol.
2%
22°C
$0 Vol.
2%
23°C
$0 Vol.
2%
24°C or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models, including GFS and regional runs, indicate Madrid’s minimum temperature on September 21 will likely fall between 16–18 °C under stable high pressure, clear skies, and light winds favoring moderate radiative cooling overnight. This setup aligns with the market’s heaviest weighting on 14 °C or below (50 %) and 15 °C (20 %), as traders incorporate ensemble spread, local urban heat-island effects, and the possibility of slightly stronger nocturnal cooling than the deterministic guidance. Historical September minima near 14.6 °C provide additional context, while the absence of frontal systems or moisture keeps downside risk limited. Updated AEMET and ECMWF runs over the next 24–48 hours represent the key data releases that could shift implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models, including GFS and regional runs, indicate Madrid’s minimum temperature on September 21 will likely fall between 16–18 °C under stable high pressure, clear skies, and light winds favoring moderate radiative cooling overnight. This setup aligns with the market’s heaviest weighting on 14 °C or below (50 %) and 15 °C (20 %), as traders incorporate ensemble spread, local urban heat-island effects, and the possibility of slightly stronger nocturnal cooling than the deterministic guidance. Historical September minima near 14.6 °C provide additional context, while the absence of frontal systems or moisture keeps downside risk limited. Updated AEMET and ECMWF runs over the next 24–48 hours represent the key data releases that could shift implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent numerical weather prediction models, including GFS and regional runs, indicate Madrid’s minimum temperature on September 21 will likely fall between 16–18 °C under stable high pressure, clear skies, and light winds favoring moderate radiative cooling overnight. This setup aligns with the market’s heaviest weighting on 14 °C or below (50 %) and 15 °C (20 %), as traders incorporate ensemble spread, local urban heat-island effects, and the possibility of slightly stronger nocturnal cooling than the deterministic guidance. Historical September minima near 14.6 °C provide additional context, while the absence of frontal systems or moisture keeps downside risk limited. Updated AEMET and ECMWF runs over the next 24–48 hours represent the key data releases that could shift implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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