Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts converged tightly on a Milan peak of 31°C for May 31 under southerly Mediterranean advection and building high pressure, with limited model spread and minimal upside risk from afternoon heating or cloud cover. Official observational data aligned precisely with this consensus, driving the market-implied probability for the 31°C outcome to 100% as traders incorporated the final readings. Historical late-May climatology for the Po Valley supports maxima clustering near this value during anticyclonic conditions. A sudden frontal passage or unforecasted radiative cooling could have shifted the outcome, though neither materialized in the verified station data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Milan on May 31?
Highest temperature in Milan on May 31?
31°C 100.0%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$42,551 Vol.
$42,551 Vol.
May 31, 2026
25°C or below
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
Yes
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C or higher
No
31°C 100.0%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$42,551 Vol.
$42,551 Vol.
May 31, 2026
25°C or below
$486 Vol.
No
26°C
$411 Vol.
No
27°C
$900 Vol.
No
28°C
$2,320 Vol.
No
29°C
$3,923 Vol.
No
30°C
$7,303 Vol.
No
31°C
$9,001 Vol.
Yes
32°C
$5,704 Vol.
No
33°C
$4,940 Vol.
No
34°C
$4,291 Vol.
No
35°C or higher
$3,271 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts converged tightly on a Milan peak of 31°C for May 31 under southerly Mediterranean advection and building high pressure, with limited model spread and minimal upside risk from afternoon heating or cloud cover. Official observational data aligned precisely with this consensus, driving the market-implied probability for the 31°C outcome to 100% as traders incorporated the final readings. Historical late-May climatology for the Po Valley supports maxima clustering near this value during anticyclonic conditions. A sudden frontal passage or unforecasted radiative cooling could have shifted the outcome, though neither materialized in the verified station data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: May 29, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volume
$42,551End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
May 29, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts converged tightly on a Milan peak of 31°C for May 31 under southerly Mediterranean advection and building high pressure, with limited model spread and minimal upside risk from afternoon heating or cloud cover. Official observational data aligned precisely with this consensus, driving the market-implied probability for the 31°C outcome to 100% as traders incorporated the final readings. Historical late-May climatology for the Po Valley supports maxima clustering near this value during anticyclonic conditions. A sudden frontal passage or unforecasted radiative cooling could have shifted the outcome, though neither materialized in the verified station data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$42,551End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
May 29, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts converged tightly on a Milan peak of 31°C for May 31 under southerly Mediterranean advection and building high pressure, with limited model spread and minimal upside risk from afternoon heating or cloud cover. Official observational data aligned precisely with this consensus, driving the market-implied probability for the 31°C outcome to 100% as traders incorporated the final readings. Historical late-May climatology for the Po Valley supports maxima clustering near this value during anticyclonic conditions. A sudden frontal passage or unforecasted radiative cooling could have shifted the outcome, though neither materialized in the verified station data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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