Recent ensemble forecasts show Moscow maximum temperatures on July 2 clustered near 28–29°C, reflecting the market’s tight distribution across those bins. Subtle differences in model guidance arise from variable mid-level flow patterns, the strength of southerly warm-air advection, and the timing of any diurnal cloud cover or scattered convection that modulates surface heating. With climatological July highs near 25°C, the current setup favors above-average readings, yet ensemble spread and boundary-layer uncertainties keep outcomes from 27°C to 30°C in close contention. Traders will monitor the next ECMWF and GFS runs for refinements in temperature profiles ahead of the July 2 resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Moscow on July 2?
Highest temperature in Moscow on July 2?
30°C 100.0%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$47,264 Vol.
$47,264 Vol.
Jul 2, 2026
24°C or below
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
Yes
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C or higher
No
30°C 100.0%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$47,264 Vol.
$47,264 Vol.
Jul 2, 2026
24°C or below
$1,551 Vol.
No
25°C
$615 Vol.
No
26°C
$1,009 Vol.
No
27°C
$2,552 Vol.
No
28°C
$7,778 Vol.
No
29°C
$7,993 Vol.
No
30°C
$9,598 Vol.
Yes
31°C
$8,820 Vol.
No
32°C
$3,589 Vol.
No
33°C
$2,836 Vol.
No
34°C or higher
$922 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts show Moscow maximum temperatures on July 2 clustered near 28–29°C, reflecting the market’s tight distribution across those bins. Subtle differences in model guidance arise from variable mid-level flow patterns, the strength of southerly warm-air advection, and the timing of any diurnal cloud cover or scattered convection that modulates surface heating. With climatological July highs near 25°C, the current setup favors above-average readings, yet ensemble spread and boundary-layer uncertainties keep outcomes from 27°C to 30°C in close contention. Traders will monitor the next ECMWF and GFS runs for refinements in temperature profiles ahead of the July 2 resolution window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 30, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
Volume
$47,264End Date
Jul 2, 2026Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts show Moscow maximum temperatures on July 2 clustered near 28–29°C, reflecting the market’s tight distribution across those bins. Subtle differences in model guidance arise from variable mid-level flow patterns, the strength of southerly warm-air advection, and the timing of any diurnal cloud cover or scattered convection that modulates surface heating. With climatological July highs near 25°C, the current setup favors above-average readings, yet ensemble spread and boundary-layer uncertainties keep outcomes from 27°C to 30°C in close contention. Traders will monitor the next ECMWF and GFS runs for refinements in temperature profiles ahead of the July 2 resolution window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$47,264End Date
Jul 2, 2026Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent ensemble forecasts show Moscow maximum temperatures on July 2 clustered near 28–29°C, reflecting the market’s tight distribution across those bins. Subtle differences in model guidance arise from variable mid-level flow patterns, the strength of southerly warm-air advection, and the timing of any diurnal cloud cover or scattered convection that modulates surface heating. With climatological July highs near 25°C, the current setup favors above-average readings, yet ensemble spread and boundary-layer uncertainties keep outcomes from 27°C to 30°C in close contention. Traders will monitor the next ECMWF and GFS runs for refinements in temperature profiles ahead of the July 2 resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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