Trader consensus in the Qingdao July 18 maximum-temperature market centers on 28–31 °C because typical mid-July synoptic patterns over the Yellow Sea produce moderate onshore flow that caps daytime heating near the long-term average high of 27–28 °C. Coastal sea breezes and higher humidity frequently suppress peaks relative to inland Shandong stations, while any shift to southwesterly flow or reduced cloud cover can add 2–4 °C. Recent model guidance shows limited spread in 850 hPa temperatures and boundary-layer moisture, keeping 32 °C and higher outcomes at low implied probability. Forecasters will watch the next 48-hour runs from the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF for changes in low-level wind direction or subsidence that could tip resolution between the closely matched 28 °C and 31 °C bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Qingdao on July 18?
Highest temperature in Qingdao on July 18?
31°C 100.0%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$34,350 Vol.
$34,350 Vol.
Jul 18, 2026
25°C or below
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
Yes
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C or higher
No
31°C 100.0%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$34,350 Vol.
$34,350 Vol.
Jul 18, 2026
25°C or below
$987 Vol.
No
26°C
$2,190 Vol.
No
27°C
$3,338 Vol.
No
28°C
$1,980 Vol.
No
29°C
$4,016 Vol.
No
30°C
$4,594 Vol.
No
31°C
$8,262 Vol.
Yes
32°C
$3,359 Vol.
No
33°C
$4,073 Vol.
No
34°C
$902 Vol.
No
35°C or higher
$647 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus in the Qingdao July 18 maximum-temperature market centers on 28–31 °C because typical mid-July synoptic patterns over the Yellow Sea produce moderate onshore flow that caps daytime heating near the long-term average high of 27–28 °C. Coastal sea breezes and higher humidity frequently suppress peaks relative to inland Shandong stations, while any shift to southwesterly flow or reduced cloud cover can add 2–4 °C. Recent model guidance shows limited spread in 850 hPa temperatures and boundary-layer moisture, keeping 32 °C and higher outcomes at low implied probability. Forecasters will watch the next 48-hour runs from the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF for changes in low-level wind direction or subsidence that could tip resolution between the closely matched 28 °C and 31 °C bins.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$34,350End Date
Jul 18, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus in the Qingdao July 18 maximum-temperature market centers on 28–31 °C because typical mid-July synoptic patterns over the Yellow Sea produce moderate onshore flow that caps daytime heating near the long-term average high of 27–28 °C. Coastal sea breezes and higher humidity frequently suppress peaks relative to inland Shandong stations, while any shift to southwesterly flow or reduced cloud cover can add 2–4 °C. Recent model guidance shows limited spread in 850 hPa temperatures and boundary-layer moisture, keeping 32 °C and higher outcomes at low implied probability. Forecasters will watch the next 48-hour runs from the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF for changes in low-level wind direction or subsidence that could tip resolution between the closely matched 28 °C and 31 °C bins.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$34,350End Date
Jul 18, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus in the Qingdao July 18 maximum-temperature market centers on 28–31 °C because typical mid-July synoptic patterns over the Yellow Sea produce moderate onshore flow that caps daytime heating near the long-term average high of 27–28 °C. Coastal sea breezes and higher humidity frequently suppress peaks relative to inland Shandong stations, while any shift to southwesterly flow or reduced cloud cover can add 2–4 °C. Recent model guidance shows limited spread in 850 hPa temperatures and boundary-layer moisture, keeping 32 °C and higher outcomes at low implied probability. Forecasters will watch the next 48-hour runs from the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF for changes in low-level wind direction or subsidence that could tip resolution between the closely matched 28 °C and 31 °C bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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