Trader consensus assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 28°C in São Paulo on April 19, 2026, anchored by official observations from the São Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport meteorological station, the market's designated resolution source per Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET) protocols. A persistent mass of dry subtropical air suppressed cloud cover in the afternoon, allowing surface heating to peak at 28°C despite pre-event INMET forecasts of 26–27°C under partly cloudy conditions with low humidity around 50%. This aligns with historical April climatology for the region, where airport readings often exceed city averages by 1–2°C due to urban heat effects and exposure. Scenarios challenging this near-certainty—such as data revisions from extended observations or instrument recalibration—are exceedingly rare, as INMET finalizes daily maxima within 24 hours using standardized World Meteorological Organization guidelines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on April 19?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on April 19?
28°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$75,899 Vol.
$75,899 Vol.
Apr 19, 2026
23°C or below
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
Yes
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C or higher
No
28°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$75,899 Vol.
$75,899 Vol.
Apr 19, 2026
23°C or below
$2,264 Vol.
No
24°C
$2,882 Vol.
No
25°C
$10,658 Vol.
No
26°C
$13,157 Vol.
No
27°C
$10,005 Vol.
No
28°C
$10,443 Vol.
Yes
29°C
$9,735 Vol.
No
30°C
$7,576 Vol.
No
31°C
$4,390 Vol.
No
32°C
$2,512 Vol.
No
33°C or higher
$2,276 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 28°C in São Paulo on April 19, 2026, anchored by official observations from the São Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport meteorological station, the market's designated resolution source per Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET) protocols. A persistent mass of dry subtropical air suppressed cloud cover in the afternoon, allowing surface heating to peak at 28°C despite pre-event INMET forecasts of 26–27°C under partly cloudy conditions with low humidity around 50%. This aligns with historical April climatology for the region, where airport readings often exceed city averages by 1–2°C due to urban heat effects and exposure. Scenarios challenging this near-certainty—such as data revisions from extended observations or instrument recalibration—are exceedingly rare, as INMET finalizes daily maxima within 24 hours using standardized World Meteorological Organization guidelines.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 17, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$75,899End Date
Apr 19, 2026Market Opened
Apr 17, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 28°C in São Paulo on April 19, 2026, anchored by official observations from the São Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport meteorological station, the market's designated resolution source per Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET) protocols. A persistent mass of dry subtropical air suppressed cloud cover in the afternoon, allowing surface heating to peak at 28°C despite pre-event INMET forecasts of 26–27°C under partly cloudy conditions with low humidity around 50%. This aligns with historical April climatology for the region, where airport readings often exceed city averages by 1–2°C due to urban heat effects and exposure. Scenarios challenging this near-certainty—such as data revisions from extended observations or instrument recalibration—are exceedingly rare, as INMET finalizes daily maxima within 24 hours using standardized World Meteorological Organization guidelines.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$75,899End Date
Apr 19, 2026Market Opened
Apr 17, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 28°C in São Paulo on April 19, 2026, anchored by official observations from the São Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport meteorological station, the market's designated resolution source per Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET) protocols. A persistent mass of dry subtropical air suppressed cloud cover in the afternoon, allowing surface heating to peak at 28°C despite pre-event INMET forecasts of 26–27°C under partly cloudy conditions with low humidity around 50%. This aligns with historical April climatology for the region, where airport readings often exceed city averages by 1–2°C due to urban heat effects and exposure. Scenarios challenging this near-certainty—such as data revisions from extended observations or instrument recalibration—are exceedingly rare, as INMET finalizes daily maxima within 24 hours using standardized World Meteorological Organization guidelines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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