Trader sentiment for Madrid’s minimum temperature on September 18 shows near-even odds between 12°C or below and 22°C or higher because ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and national models display wide spread. A developing Atlantic trough could steer cooler maritime air southward, enhancing nocturnal radiative cooling under clear skies and pushing the low below 13°C, while a stronger subtropical ridge would favor warmer advection and limited overnight drops near 20°C. Recent surface observations indicate variable wind patterns over central Spain, with model disagreement centered on frontal timing and cloud cover. Updated runs from AEMET and ECMWF over the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow the range and shift the market-implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Madrid on September 18?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on September 18?
14°C 40%
15°C 40%
13°C 39%
16°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
12°C or below
17%
13°C
39%
14°C
40%
15°C
40%
16°C
19%
17°C
11%
18°C
7%
19°C
5%
20°C
5%
21°C
2%
22°C or higher
2%
14°C 40%
15°C 40%
13°C 39%
16°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
12°C or below
$0 Vol.
17%
13°C
$0 Vol.
39%
14°C
$0 Vol.
40%
15°C
$0 Vol.
40%
16°C
$0 Vol.
19%
17°C
$0 Vol.
11%
18°C
$0 Vol.
7%
19°C
$0 Vol.
5%
20°C
$0 Vol.
5%
21°C
$0 Vol.
2%
22°C or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader sentiment for Madrid’s minimum temperature on September 18 shows near-even odds between 12°C or below and 22°C or higher because ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and national models display wide spread. A developing Atlantic trough could steer cooler maritime air southward, enhancing nocturnal radiative cooling under clear skies and pushing the low below 13°C, while a stronger subtropical ridge would favor warmer advection and limited overnight drops near 20°C. Recent surface observations indicate variable wind patterns over central Spain, with model disagreement centered on frontal timing and cloud cover. Updated runs from AEMET and ECMWF over the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow the range and shift the market-implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader sentiment for Madrid’s minimum temperature on September 18 shows near-even odds between 12°C or below and 22°C or higher because ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and national models display wide spread. A developing Atlantic trough could steer cooler maritime air southward, enhancing nocturnal radiative cooling under clear skies and pushing the low below 13°C, while a stronger subtropical ridge would favor warmer advection and limited overnight drops near 20°C. Recent surface observations indicate variable wind patterns over central Spain, with model disagreement centered on frontal timing and cloud cover. Updated runs from AEMET and ECMWF over the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow the range and shift the market-implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for Madrid’s minimum temperature on September 18 shows near-even odds between 12°C or below and 22°C or higher because ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and national models display wide spread. A developing Atlantic trough could steer cooler maritime air southward, enhancing nocturnal radiative cooling under clear skies and pushing the low below 13°C, while a stronger subtropical ridge would favor warmer advection and limited overnight drops near 20°C. Recent surface observations indicate variable wind patterns over central Spain, with model disagreement centered on frontal timing and cloud cover. Updated runs from AEMET and ECMWF over the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow the range and shift the market-implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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