Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 29°C at 100% implied probability for Shanghai's highest temperature on April 27, 2026, driven by official observations from the Shanghai Pudong International Airport weather station—the market's resolution source—recording a midday peak of 29°C amid overcast conditions and a frontal system capping solar heating and potential convective activity. China Meteorological Administration spot forecasts aligned precisely with this outcome, projecting 28-29°C highs under persistent cloud cover that suppressed stronger warming despite April's +2°C monthly mean temperature anomaly above the 15.7°C norm. Realistic challenges would require a rare post-day data revision uncovering an overlooked higher hourly reading, though evening cooling and consistent model outputs from NOAA analogs leave negligible room for shifts as final CMA reports finalize.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on April 27?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on April 27?
29°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$300,471 Vol.
$300,471 Vol.
Apr 27, 2026
21°C or below
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
Yes
30°C
No
31°C or higher
No
29°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$300,471 Vol.
$300,471 Vol.
Apr 27, 2026
21°C or below
$23,231 Vol.
No
22°C
$10,322 Vol.
No
23°C
$15,028 Vol.
No
24°C
$23,641 Vol.
No
25°C
$19,168 Vol.
No
26°C
$17,935 Vol.
No
27°C
$27,189 Vol.
No
28°C
$46,997 Vol.
No
29°C
$68,877 Vol.
Yes
30°C
$28,152 Vol.
No
31°C or higher
$19,930 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 29°C at 100% implied probability for Shanghai's highest temperature on April 27, 2026, driven by official observations from the Shanghai Pudong International Airport weather station—the market's resolution source—recording a midday peak of 29°C amid overcast conditions and a frontal system capping solar heating and potential convective activity. China Meteorological Administration spot forecasts aligned precisely with this outcome, projecting 28-29°C highs under persistent cloud cover that suppressed stronger warming despite April's +2°C monthly mean temperature anomaly above the 15.7°C norm. Realistic challenges would require a rare post-day data revision uncovering an overlooked higher hourly reading, though evening cooling and consistent model outputs from NOAA analogs leave negligible room for shifts as final CMA reports finalize.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 25, 2026, 12:53 AM ET
Volume
$300,471End Date
Apr 27, 2026Market Opened
Apr 25, 2026, 12:53 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 29°C at 100% implied probability for Shanghai's highest temperature on April 27, 2026, driven by official observations from the Shanghai Pudong International Airport weather station—the market's resolution source—recording a midday peak of 29°C amid overcast conditions and a frontal system capping solar heating and potential convective activity. China Meteorological Administration spot forecasts aligned precisely with this outcome, projecting 28-29°C highs under persistent cloud cover that suppressed stronger warming despite April's +2°C monthly mean temperature anomaly above the 15.7°C norm. Realistic challenges would require a rare post-day data revision uncovering an overlooked higher hourly reading, though evening cooling and consistent model outputs from NOAA analogs leave negligible room for shifts as final CMA reports finalize.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$300,471End Date
Apr 27, 2026Market Opened
Apr 25, 2026, 12:53 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 29°C at 100% implied probability for Shanghai's highest temperature on April 27, 2026, driven by official observations from the Shanghai Pudong International Airport weather station—the market's resolution source—recording a midday peak of 29°C amid overcast conditions and a frontal system capping solar heating and potential convective activity. China Meteorological Administration spot forecasts aligned precisely with this outcome, projecting 28-29°C highs under persistent cloud cover that suppressed stronger warming despite April's +2°C monthly mean temperature anomaly above the 15.7°C norm. Realistic challenges would require a rare post-day data revision uncovering an overlooked higher hourly reading, though evening cooling and consistent model outputs from NOAA analogs leave negligible room for shifts as final CMA reports finalize.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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