**Current forecasts for Tel Aviv on September 19, 2026, cluster around 29–30°C as the most probable daily maximum, consistent with market-implied probabilities favoring 30°C (61%) and 31°C (28%).** Recent model guidance from GFS and other sources shows a cooling trend after hotter conditions on September 17 (highs near 32–33°C). A weather system is expected to bring localized showers and increased cloud cover on September 18, moderating temperatures on the 19th with northwest winds, partly cloudy skies, and highs typically projected between 28–31°C. Historical September averages for Tel Aviv sit near 29°C, and current runs show limited deviation from this baseline absent stronger ridging or subsidence. Key variables influencing the tight distribution include sea-breeze effects from the Mediterranean, which cap afternoon peaks, and the timing of any residual moisture or wind shifts. Ensemble spreads remain modest this close to the date, supporting trader consensus around 30°C while leaving room for minor upward revisions if clearer skies develop. Fresh model updates from agencies like the Israel Meteorological Service or ECMWF runs over the next 48 hours represent the primary near-term catalysts for probability shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on September 19?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on September 19?
30°C 55%
31°C 32%
29°C 14%
33°C 2%
NEW
NEW
Sep 19, 2026
27°C or below
1%
28°C
1%
29°C
14%
30°C
55%
31°C
32%
32°C
1%
33°C
2%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C or higher
<1%
30°C 55%
31°C 32%
29°C 14%
33°C 2%
NEW
NEW
Sep 19, 2026
27°C or below
$242 Vol.
1%
28°C
$0 Vol.
1%
29°C
$11 Vol.
14%
30°C
$181 Vol.
55%
31°C
$88 Vol.
32%
32°C
$0 Vol.
1%
33°C
$0 Vol.
2%
34°C
$111 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$103 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$103 Vol.
<1%
37°C or higher
$103 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts for Tel Aviv on September 19, 2026, cluster around 29–30°C as the most probable daily maximum, consistent with market-implied probabilities favoring 30°C (61%) and 31°C (28%).**
Recent model guidance from GFS and other sources shows a cooling trend after hotter conditions on September 17 (highs near 32–33°C). A weather system is expected to bring localized showers and increased cloud cover on September 18, moderating temperatures on the 19th with northwest winds, partly cloudy skies, and highs typically projected between 28–31°C. Historical September averages for Tel Aviv sit near 29°C, and current runs show limited deviation from this baseline absent stronger ridging or subsidence.
Key variables influencing the tight distribution include sea-breeze effects from the Mediterranean, which cap afternoon peaks, and the timing of any residual moisture or wind shifts. Ensemble spreads remain modest this close to the date, supporting trader consensus around 30°C while leaving room for minor upward revisions if clearer skies develop. Fresh model updates from agencies like the Israel Meteorological Service or ECMWF runs over the next 48 hours represent the primary near-term catalysts for probability shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$943End Date
Sep 19, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts for Tel Aviv on September 19, 2026, cluster around 29–30°C as the most probable daily maximum, consistent with market-implied probabilities favoring 30°C (61%) and 31°C (28%).**
Recent model guidance from GFS and other sources shows a cooling trend after hotter conditions on September 17 (highs near 32–33°C). A weather system is expected to bring localized showers and increased cloud cover on September 18, moderating temperatures on the 19th with northwest winds, partly cloudy skies, and highs typically projected between 28–31°C. Historical September averages for Tel Aviv sit near 29°C, and current runs show limited deviation from this baseline absent stronger ridging or subsidence.
Key variables influencing the tight distribution include sea-breeze effects from the Mediterranean, which cap afternoon peaks, and the timing of any residual moisture or wind shifts. Ensemble spreads remain modest this close to the date, supporting trader consensus around 30°C while leaving room for minor upward revisions if clearer skies develop. Fresh model updates from agencies like the Israel Meteorological Service or ECMWF runs over the next 48 hours represent the primary near-term catalysts for probability shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$943End Date
Sep 19, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current forecasts for Tel Aviv on September 19, 2026, cluster around 29–30°C as the most probable daily maximum, consistent with market-implied probabilities favoring 30°C (61%) and 31°C (28%).** Recent model guidance from GFS and other sources shows a cooling trend after hotter conditions on September 17 (highs near 32–33°C). A weather system is expected to bring localized showers and increased cloud cover on September 18, moderating temperatures on the 19th with northwest winds, partly cloudy skies, and highs typically projected between 28–31°C. Historical September averages for Tel Aviv sit near 29°C, and current runs show limited deviation from this baseline absent stronger ridging or subsidence. Key variables influencing the tight distribution include sea-breeze effects from the Mediterranean, which cap afternoon peaks, and the timing of any residual moisture or wind shifts. Ensemble spreads remain modest this close to the date, supporting trader consensus around 30°C while leaving room for minor upward revisions if clearer skies develop. Fresh model updates from agencies like the Israel Meteorological Service or ECMWF runs over the next 48 hours represent the primary near-term catalysts for probability shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions