Japan Meteorological Agency observations confirm Tokyo's highest temperature reached 20°C midday on April 29 under persistent cloudy skies, capping daytime heating despite late-April climatological averages of 20–22°C. Updated forecasts from 17:00 JST reflect limited solar insolation and a passing frontal system steering cooler air, aligning model consensus from NOAA and ECMWF ensembles that showed low intensification potential. Trader consensus at 100% implied probability on 20°C reflects real-time station data from central Tokyo observatories, with sunset near 18:30 JST minimizing any late rebound. Realistic challenges include improbable clearing for a 1°C spike, but inherent forecast uncertainty is now negligible as resolution nears via official JMA records.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on April 29?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 29?
20°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$207,460 Vol.
$207,460 Vol.
Apr 29, 2026
14°C or below
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
Yes
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C or higher
No
20°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$207,460 Vol.
$207,460 Vol.
Apr 29, 2026
14°C or below
$1,087 Vol.
No
15°C
$1,605 Vol.
No
16°C
$2,008 Vol.
No
17°C
$2,605 Vol.
No
18°C
$21,586 Vol.
No
19°C
$27,165 Vol.
No
20°C
$53,981 Vol.
Yes
21°C
$23,016 Vol.
No
22°C
$32,266 Vol.
No
23°C
$26,788 Vol.
No
24°C or higher
$15,352 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Japan Meteorological Agency observations confirm Tokyo's highest temperature reached 20°C midday on April 29 under persistent cloudy skies, capping daytime heating despite late-April climatological averages of 20–22°C. Updated forecasts from 17:00 JST reflect limited solar insolation and a passing frontal system steering cooler air, aligning model consensus from NOAA and ECMWF ensembles that showed low intensification potential. Trader consensus at 100% implied probability on 20°C reflects real-time station data from central Tokyo observatories, with sunset near 18:30 JST minimizing any late rebound. Realistic challenges include improbable clearing for a 1°C spike, but inherent forecast uncertainty is now negligible as resolution nears via official JMA records.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 27, 2026, 12:34 AM ET
Volume
$207,460End Date
Apr 29, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 12:34 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Japan Meteorological Agency observations confirm Tokyo's highest temperature reached 20°C midday on April 29 under persistent cloudy skies, capping daytime heating despite late-April climatological averages of 20–22°C. Updated forecasts from 17:00 JST reflect limited solar insolation and a passing frontal system steering cooler air, aligning model consensus from NOAA and ECMWF ensembles that showed low intensification potential. Trader consensus at 100% implied probability on 20°C reflects real-time station data from central Tokyo observatories, with sunset near 18:30 JST minimizing any late rebound. Realistic challenges include improbable clearing for a 1°C spike, but inherent forecast uncertainty is now negligible as resolution nears via official JMA records.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$207,460End Date
Apr 29, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 12:34 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Japan Meteorological Agency observations confirm Tokyo's highest temperature reached 20°C midday on April 29 under persistent cloudy skies, capping daytime heating despite late-April climatological averages of 20–22°C. Updated forecasts from 17:00 JST reflect limited solar insolation and a passing frontal system steering cooler air, aligning model consensus from NOAA and ECMWF ensembles that showed low intensification potential. Trader consensus at 100% implied probability on 20°C reflects real-time station data from central Tokyo observatories, with sunset near 18:30 JST minimizing any late rebound. Realistic challenges include improbable clearing for a 1°C spike, but inherent forecast uncertainty is now negligible as resolution nears via official JMA records.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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