**Recent model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs points to a cooling trend after peak heat on August 10, positioning 21–23°C as the dominant outcomes for Warsaw’s August 11 maximum.** A shift toward northerly or northwesterly flow is expected to advect cooler maritime air, increasing cloud cover and limiting daytime heating compared to the prior hot, sunny regime. Ensemble spreads remain modest, with most members clustering in the low-to-mid 20s Celsius; any residual instability or clearer breaks could nudge readings toward 24°C, while thicker cloud or light showers would favor 21°C or below. Historical August climatology for Warsaw averages near 23–24°C, so the current setup reflects a below-normal anomaly driven by the evolving synoptic pattern. Updated IMGW briefings and 12z/00z model cycles over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities as resolution approaches.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on August 11?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 11?
22°C 37%
23°C 28%
21°C 25%
24°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 11, 2026
18°C or below
2%
19°C
3%
20°C
10%
21°C
25%
22°C
37%
23°C
28%
24°C
12%
25°C
2%
26°C
4%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
22°C 37%
23°C 28%
21°C 25%
24°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 11, 2026
18°C or below
$5 Vol.
2%
19°C
$11 Vol.
3%
20°C
$0 Vol.
10%
21°C
$0 Vol.
25%
22°C
$10 Vol.
37%
23°C
$0 Vol.
28%
24°C
$0 Vol.
12%
25°C
$11 Vol.
2%
26°C
$10 Vol.
4%
27°C
$12 Vol.
<1%
28°C or higher
$12 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs points to a cooling trend after peak heat on August 10, positioning 21–23°C as the dominant outcomes for Warsaw’s August 11 maximum.** A shift toward northerly or northwesterly flow is expected to advect cooler maritime air, increasing cloud cover and limiting daytime heating compared to the prior hot, sunny regime. Ensemble spreads remain modest, with most members clustering in the low-to-mid 20s Celsius; any residual instability or clearer breaks could nudge readings toward 24°C, while thicker cloud or light showers would favor 21°C or below. Historical August climatology for Warsaw averages near 23–24°C, so the current setup reflects a below-normal anomaly driven by the evolving synoptic pattern. Updated IMGW briefings and 12z/00z model cycles over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities as resolution approaches.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 9, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$70End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs points to a cooling trend after peak heat on August 10, positioning 21–23°C as the dominant outcomes for Warsaw’s August 11 maximum.** A shift toward northerly or northwesterly flow is expected to advect cooler maritime air, increasing cloud cover and limiting daytime heating compared to the prior hot, sunny regime. Ensemble spreads remain modest, with most members clustering in the low-to-mid 20s Celsius; any residual instability or clearer breaks could nudge readings toward 24°C, while thicker cloud or light showers would favor 21°C or below. Historical August climatology for Warsaw averages near 23–24°C, so the current setup reflects a below-normal anomaly driven by the evolving synoptic pattern. Updated IMGW briefings and 12z/00z model cycles over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities as resolution approaches.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$70End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs points to a cooling trend after peak heat on August 10, positioning 21–23°C as the dominant outcomes for Warsaw’s August 11 maximum.** A shift toward northerly or northwesterly flow is expected to advect cooler maritime air, increasing cloud cover and limiting daytime heating compared to the prior hot, sunny regime. Ensemble spreads remain modest, with most members clustering in the low-to-mid 20s Celsius; any residual instability or clearer breaks could nudge readings toward 24°C, while thicker cloud or light showers would favor 21°C or below. Historical August climatology for Warsaw averages near 23–24°C, so the current setup reflects a below-normal anomaly driven by the evolving synoptic pattern. Updated IMGW briefings and 12z/00z model cycles over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities as resolution approaches.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions