Official observations from Warsaw Chopin Airport (EPWA), Poland's primary synoptic station managed under IMGW protocols, recorded a maximum air temperature of 27°C on May 3, 2026, during predominantly sunny conditions under a high-pressure ridge. This measurement, captured via standard 2-meter shaded thermometers and corroborated by hourly METAR reports peaking near 27°C in the afternoon, matches pre-event IMGW forecasts of 25-27°C for central Poland and exceeds the May climatological average of 19°C. Trader consensus at 100% implied probability reflects this ground-truth data's reliability, with skin-in-the-game bets converging post-event. Realistic challenges are minimal but could arise from IMGW's final daily bulletin revealing sensor anomalies or urban heat discrepancies, though such revisions are exceedingly rare for established stations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on May 3?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on May 3?
27°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$64,077 Vol.
$64,077 Vol.
May 3, 2026
19°C or below
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
Yes
28°C
No
29°C or higher
No
27°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$64,077 Vol.
$64,077 Vol.
May 3, 2026
19°C or below
$1,745 Vol.
No
20°C
$2,785 Vol.
No
21°C
$1,710 Vol.
No
22°C
$2,295 Vol.
No
23°C
$3,713 Vol.
No
24°C
$4,660 Vol.
No
25°C
$6,310 Vol.
No
26°C
$11,486 Vol.
No
27°C
$9,716 Vol.
Yes
28°C
$12,119 Vol.
No
29°C or higher
$7,537 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observations from Warsaw Chopin Airport (EPWA), Poland's primary synoptic station managed under IMGW protocols, recorded a maximum air temperature of 27°C on May 3, 2026, during predominantly sunny conditions under a high-pressure ridge. This measurement, captured via standard 2-meter shaded thermometers and corroborated by hourly METAR reports peaking near 27°C in the afternoon, matches pre-event IMGW forecasts of 25-27°C for central Poland and exceeds the May climatological average of 19°C. Trader consensus at 100% implied probability reflects this ground-truth data's reliability, with skin-in-the-game bets converging post-event. Realistic challenges are minimal but could arise from IMGW's final daily bulletin revealing sensor anomalies or urban heat discrepancies, though such revisions are exceedingly rare for established stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 1, 2026, 12:39 AM ET
Volume
$64,077End Date
May 3, 2026Market Opened
May 1, 2026, 12:39 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observations from Warsaw Chopin Airport (EPWA), Poland's primary synoptic station managed under IMGW protocols, recorded a maximum air temperature of 27°C on May 3, 2026, during predominantly sunny conditions under a high-pressure ridge. This measurement, captured via standard 2-meter shaded thermometers and corroborated by hourly METAR reports peaking near 27°C in the afternoon, matches pre-event IMGW forecasts of 25-27°C for central Poland and exceeds the May climatological average of 19°C. Trader consensus at 100% implied probability reflects this ground-truth data's reliability, with skin-in-the-game bets converging post-event. Realistic challenges are minimal but could arise from IMGW's final daily bulletin revealing sensor anomalies or urban heat discrepancies, though such revisions are exceedingly rare for established stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$64,077End Date
May 3, 2026Market Opened
May 1, 2026, 12:39 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Official observations from Warsaw Chopin Airport (EPWA), Poland's primary synoptic station managed under IMGW protocols, recorded a maximum air temperature of 27°C on May 3, 2026, during predominantly sunny conditions under a high-pressure ridge. This measurement, captured via standard 2-meter shaded thermometers and corroborated by hourly METAR reports peaking near 27°C in the afternoon, matches pre-event IMGW forecasts of 25-27°C for central Poland and exceeds the May climatological average of 19°C. Trader consensus at 100% implied probability reflects this ground-truth data's reliability, with skin-in-the-game bets converging post-event. Realistic challenges are minimal but could arise from IMGW's final daily bulletin revealing sensor anomalies or urban heat discrepancies, though such revisions are exceedingly rare for established stations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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